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Listen to this article in summarized format Despite the positive weekly close, the Nifty failed to reclaim the crucial 200-week moving average, keeping the broader technical structure vulnerable. Volatility edged higher as India VIX rose 5.67% to 15.28, reflecting continued uncertainty among market participants. The benchmark index eventually settled with a modest weekly gain of 98.50 points (0.44%). The markets are presently at a critical technical juncture. Although the Nifty has managed to interrupt its eight-week losing streak, the broader trend remains weak, with the index trading below its important 200-week moving average, currently placed at 22,627. The immediate technical setup, however, suggests a strong possibility of an extension of the ongoing rebound. This expectation is supported by positive divergences developing in the leading indicators on the daily charts. Nevertheless, the 200-week moving average remains the decisive level to watch. A sustained move above 22,627, accompanied by a weekly close above this level, would be necessary for the recovery to gain credibility and extend towards higher resistance zones. The coming week is likely to see a cautiously positive start. However, the index may encounter resistance as it approaches its long-term moving average. The immediate resistance levels are placed at 22,630 and 22,780, while support is expected at 22,300 and 22,100. The weekly RSI stands at 32.56, remaining at the lower end of the neutral range and reflecting persistent weakness in momentum. It remains neutral relative to price. The weekly MACD remains bearish, trading below its signal line, with the negative histogram indicating that downward momentum continues to dominate on the higher timeframe. The latest weekly candle is a “spinning top”, reflecting indecision and an attempt at stabilisation near an important support area. From a pattern analysis perspective, the Nifty remains under pressure after retreating from the upper boundary of a broad consolidation range spanning two years. The index is now testing the lower boundary, marked by a support trendline connecting key lows. This converges with the 200-week moving average, making the 22,500–22,650 zone technically significant. The proximity of these support levels suggests scope for a technical rebound. Market participants should approach the coming week with guarded optimism. Positive divergences on daily charts suggest the possibility of further recovery, but a sustained move above the Nifty’s 200-week moving average, followed by a close above that level, will be key. Increased buying should wait until the market sustains above the long-term average. Until then, a cautious, stock-specific approach with disciplined risk management is advisable. The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) shows that the Nifty Bank Index has moved into the leading quadrant. The Nifty IT, Pharma, Media and Metal indices are also placed in this quadrant. These sectors may relatively outperform the broader market. The Nifty Auto Index has moved into the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Midcap 100 Index is also in this quadrant. While stock-specific performance may emerge, the overall relative performance of these groups may slow. The Nifty Infrastructure, FMCG and Energy indices are in the lagging quadrant. However, all three are showing an improvement in relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 index. The Nifty Financial Services and PSE indices have moved into the improving quadrant, potentially signalling the beginning of a phase of relative outperformance. The PSU Bank and Nifty Services Sector indices are also placed in the improving quadrant. Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against the NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals. (Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia) (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
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