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The NFL season is expected to generate roughly $40 billion in U.S. wagering activity, according to a new forecast from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming. The market researcher said regulated sportsbooks still command nearly four out of every five dollars wagered, with an estimated $31.7 billion in handle — up about 8% from the last season. But the sector is seeing its first credible challenge. While trading volume is not directly comparable with sportsbook handle, EKG estimates predictions markets will see the equivalent of $8.4 billion in NFL wagering activity, or a 21% share of the combined market. The increase is being fueled by the growth of the total addressable market, according to EKG. Predictions markets can offer sports contracts in states like California, Texas and Georgia where sports betting is still illegal, or in Florida, where the Seminole Tribe's Hard Rock business has the monopoly. The early numbers show how quickly predictions markets are scaling. Football contract volume across selected exchanges reached 2.94 billion contracts between Sept. 1 and Sept. 14 — nearly four times the comparable period last year, the firm said. During kickoff week, Polymarket recorded 755,000 U.S. app downloads, moving ahead of Kalshi at 602,000. The app-download comparison excludes Robinhood and Coinbase because their downloads reflect much more than prediction markets. "Prediction markets are growing the overall market — at least for now," said Chris Grove, partner emeritus at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming. "We'll start to see more direct competition between sportsbooks and prediction markets by the time we get to the Super Bowl." There is not yet much evidence that prediction markets are taking substantial business from sportsbooks, EKG said. DraftKings and FanDuel, which have both launched their own prediction platforms, say there's been, at most, a low single-digit drag on handle growth. Rush Street Interactive has reported no discernible impact. BetMGM, which is co-owned by MGM and Entain, has reported a more meaningful effect. For consumers, sportsbooks also offer important advantages: deeper betting menus, more polished apps and established loyalty programs. EKG expects parlays to account for more than 40% of regulated NFL handle — and potentially about 75% of sportsbook NFL revenue because of their higher margins. Prediction platforms are copying that playbook. Piper Sandler said combination contracts, essentially prediction-market parlays, now represent the majority of Kalshi's volume. On the latest reported day, total volume across the eight exchanges Piper tracks reached about $2.48 billion, led by Kalshi at $1.93 billion and Polymarket at $403.6 million. And the field is getting more crowded beyond Kalshi and Polymarket. Upstart competitors Novig and Underdog are working to coax football fans and their dollars onto their own platforms. Piper Sandler's latest tally put Novig volume at $43 million, up 77% month over month, and Underdog at $26.5 million, up 80%. Novig is trying to turn that growth into national brand recognition with its new "Just Sports" campaign starring actress and influencer Sydney Sweeney, who says she's taken an equity stake in the prediction platform. The provocative ads have drawn both enormous attention and criticism, ripping a page from the same celebrity-driven marketing playbook long used by sportsbooks. For now, sportsbooks remain king of the hill, but the prediction markets have put them on defense. CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship which includes a minority investment and customer acquisition.
document fetched 2026-09-19 02:57 · canonical https://cnbc.com/2026/09/18/sportsbooks-remain-king-this-football-season-but-upstarts-are-making-a-run-for-the-money.html