Republicans race to avoid a civil war over Israel

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The News
Donald Trump’s wartime alliance with Benjamin Netanyahu is exposing a divide within his party that will outlast his presidency — over what “America First” really means for the US-Israel relationship.
Making peace between the GOP’s pro-Israel establishment and its restive right wing will pose an early challenge for Vice President JD Vance, who’s positioning himself for a possible 2028 run. But any Republican looking for the nomination to succeed Trump will have to sidestep the same sort of internal clashes over Israel that have bedeviled Democrats.
Trump’s position is clear: The US president, even amid open tensions with the Israeli leader, has aligned tightly with Netanyahu and endorsed his reelection. A White House official, in a statement to Semafor, emphasized Trump’s “great relationship” with the prime minister.
Yet that position, unpopular with factions in both parties, is also unpopular with some inside his deeply loyalist White House.
“At the mid-level and upper levels of the administration, there is not only real frustration, but real anger with Netanyahu’s government,” said one Trump administration official. “There’s a feeling that they oversold what they could do vis-a-vis Iran, and about how fragile the Iranian regime was. There’s a feeling that we had to bear a lot of the brunt for actually defending Israel.”
The next president, regardless of party, will face specific questions about how much to sustain the long tradition of direct US military aid to Israel and deep US integration with its military.
Netanyahu himself, as he prepares for an election that could end his leadership in its current form, acknowledged as much in a Friday interview: “Tens of billions of US aid dollars to the defense budget — get used to it — won’t keep coming. Because America has changed. Not because Israel has.”
And as Trump nears his lame-duck era, partisans on both sides of the Israel debate are watching every 2028 hopeful, including Vance. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a longtime backer of the Israeli government, could try to cut into Vance’s advantage with likeminded donors if he runs; others in the party are hoping Secretary of State Marco Rubio jumps into a primary for the same reason, though it’s less likely.
Vance, meanwhile, is trying to balance Trump’s level of support for Israel against a populist right wing that’s increasingly questioning the current relationship.
In private conversations and public meetings, Vance has sought to assure pro-Israel Republicans that he holds no animus toward the Jewish state, while arguing that the relationship should be more explicitly guided by US interests. Earlier this year, he compared the US relationship with Israel to that of countries like France and the UK.
“When we’re partnered, great, let’s work together. And [when] we’re not, let’s just be honest about it,” he said.
Vance declined last week either to endorse or to criticize Netanyahu (Trump appeared unconcerned, telling reporters it’s “up to him”). As Vance put it to Joe Rogan in July, he’s merely a “guy advocating for a normal relationship with a normal country.”
That posture may not please either side, but it has helped mollify his critics, to an extent.
“I do not think he hates Israel. I don’t. I don’t think he’s an antisemite, not by any stretch,” said Sid Rosenberg, a conservative radio host who met privately with Vance last month at the White House amid the VP’s charm offensive on the subject. “But I don’t think he has the same passion for Israel moving forward as somebody like Marco or Ted would.”
The Tucker factor
Rosenberg also addressed the elephant in the room for Vance: “He’s definitely in a tougher spot than Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz because the truth is a lot of Jewish voters don’t trust him. Some of that is the way he talks about Israel and Bibi, and some of that is because he’s admittedly friendly with Tucker Carlson.”
The VP’s long friendship with the powerful right-wing broadcaster is, for many on the pro-Israel side, the heart of the issue. Vance has neither criticized his friend nor publicly nudged Carlson to temper what’s been harsh criticism of Israel — and Trump’s cultivation of the Netanyahu government.
“I don’t think there’s much debate about the definition of America First. It means putting the interests of American citizens above all others. That would definitely not include sending tens of billions of tax dollars to genocidal ethnostates in the Middle East so they can kill kids,” Carlson said in a text exchange with Semafor. “That’s not America First. It’s evil.”
Hawks vs. ‘restrainers’
The real views of Israel among top Republicans aren’t as binary as they’re made out to be. Critics of Israel within the GOP aren’t as numerous, or as organized, as their Democratic counterparts.
The real schism exists between traditional pro-Israel hawks, who have allied the US with the Jewish state since the George W. Bush era, and a spectrum of skeptics — led by “restrainers,” who argue that the US should be more disengaged from Israel but have no ill-will toward the country. (Carlson’s views on Israel are seen by many on the right as at the more extreme end of the skeptical faction.)
One person close to the White House echoed Vance’s public position in summing up restrainers’ perspective as not “anti-Israel” in the same way as a progressive: “It’s just like, I don’t spend the vast majority of my day thinking about this country halfway around the world. I think Israel is cool; seems like a fine country. I’m not sure why we are so devoted to what’s going on in their country as much as we are.”
At the heart of the debate is whether the US should keep its current spending on Israeli defense — an issue that some in both countries see as an unnecessary irritant to US politics.
Netanyahu said in his Friday interview that he’s preparing to rely less on US aid, and some of Trump’s senior national security aides are pushing to keep the US’ long-term focus on China.
The party’s pro-Israel hawks say that turning away from Israel is out of step with the electorate. One conservative media veteran argued that Israel is America’s “best ally in the Middle East,” highlighting Trump’s insistence on preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon as evidence of consistency.
“This whole ‘America First’ thing is just a charade for an excuse to hate on Israel,” the person said, adding: “American voters do care about what’s happening in Israel.”
That’s less clear than it once was amid a generational shift. A Pew Research Center survey from May found that just 28% of Republicans ages 18-34 had a favorable view of the Israeli government, compared with 68% of Republicans aged 50 and older. Asked about their view of the Israeli people, 43% of younger Republicans said they view them favorably, compared with 79% of Republicans 50 and older.
The View From Jerusalem
The schism among Republicans could have consequences for Netanyahu: His pitch to voters in Israel has focused on his close alliance with the US. And polls ahead of Tuesday’s Israeli elections show that his party may not win the seats needed to form a government.
Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Semafor that some of the internal White House frustrations with Netanyahu could serve to undermine the Israeli leader as he fights for reelection.
“We certainly see other people in the Trump administration who are far more frustrated than with Netanyahu, and sometimes visibly so,” Sachs said. “Vice President Vance is one of them, but he’s not the only one. And in this regard, that does hurt Netanyahu somewhat, or at least undermines one of his central arguments — which is that he [alone] is able to deal with world leaders in a way that his challengers would not.”
Lauren Morganbesser contributed.

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