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Senators elected this November are slated to be in office in the fourth quarter of 2032 — the projected depletion date for the trust fund Social Security relies on to help pay retirement benefits. Without action by Congress, that depletion may prompt a 22% cut to benefits for eligible retired workers, their spouses and children and survivors of deceased workers. A new survey from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation finds that 81% of respondents in states with competitive Senate races say they are more likely to vote for candidates with plans to avoid automatic Social Security benefit cuts than for a candidate "who promises not to touch Social Security." The online survey from the Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan organization focused on addressing America's long-term fiscal challenges, included 2,500 registered voters in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — states with Senate contests the group said it anticipates will be broadly competitive come November. The survey, which was fielded between Aug. 20 and Aug. 27, had a margin of error of 4.4%. Once Peterson Foundation interviewers told those surveyed voters in Senate battleground states about the projected benefit cuts in 2032, the share who said they support Social Security reforms rose to 91% from 49%. "Awareness with the public is still relatively low, although it's growing," Brett Loper, executive vice president of policy at the Peterson Foundation, said of Social Security's looming funding shortfall. "If we can raise the awareness level amongst the population, they're in turn going to hopefully raise it with the candidates who are running for office," Loper said. The 91% of all respondents in support of Social Security reforms includes 92% of Republicans surveyed and 90% of Democrats, according to the Peterson Foundation's poll results. It also includes 94% of respondents age 65 and over; 92% of those ages 45 to 64; and 87% of those ages 18 to 44. How voters feel about possible Social Security reforms To help shore up benefits, lawmakers have several options. Generally, that may include raising taxes, cutting benefits or a combination of both. The Peterson Foundation survey did not ask about all Social Security reform proposals that lawmakers and policy experts have suggested. Of those solutions it queried potential voters about, the highest share of respondents — 72% — said they support increasing the payroll tax cap by 1% for all income above $184,500. Currently, employees and employers each contribute 6.2% toward Social Security on earnings up to $184,500, a threshold that changes every year to keep pace with average wages. About two-thirds of respondents — 66% — said they favor capping Social Security benefits so that no retired couple would receive more than $100,000 per year, the poll found. Meanwhile, 65% of respondents said they back reducing benefits for the top 20% of earners, and 65% support gradual benefit adjustments and tax increases. Just 29% of potential voters the Peterson Foundation surveyed said they would be in favor of government borrowing to avoid automatic benefit cuts. A separate survey of 2,243 Americans conducted in October and November of 2024 found the policy option that received the most support was eliminating the payroll tax cap for earnings over $400,000 without providing benefit increases in exchange for the additional money paid into the program. That survey, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, was by the National Academy of Social Insurance, AARP, the National Institute on Retirement Security and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce with Greenwald Research. Another popular policy choice, according to the 2024 survey, was gradually raising the payroll tax rate to 7.2% from 6.2% for both workers and employers. That 2024 survey also found certain benefit increases — such as changing the way the annual cost-of-living adjustment is measured to more accurately reflect inflation, providing a caregiver credit, or providing a bridge benefit for older workers who had careers in physically demanding occupations — were also popular with respondents. The Peterson Foundation has not endorsed specific reforms to address Social Security's solvency woes, though it has backed the idea of forming a commission to help solve it, Loper said. One bill, the Bipartisan Social Security Commission Act, has proposed establishing a 13-member panel of lawmakers and outside experts to identify ways to restore the program's long-term solvency. "Let's hopefully solve this in 2027 or 2028 [under President Donald Trump], or 2029 with a new president, as opposed to waiting until the last minute in 2032 when the options become less and less appealing," Loper said. The last major reforms to Social Security, which President Ronald Reagan signed into law in 1983, were preceded by a commission that came up with a report with recommendations for changes to the program. However, today, groups including the AARP have said they would prefer a legislative process that prioritizes transparency and public participation in reform discussions.
document fetched 2026-09-19 02:57 · canonical https://cnbc.com/2026/09/18/social-security-senate-races-battleground-voters-survey.html