Pappas-Sununu showdown set in Democrats' must-win Senate race: 3 takeaways from New Hampshire

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Pappas-Sununu showdown set in Democrats’ must-win Senate race: 3 takeaways from New Hampshire
Rep. Chris Pappas (D) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) are poised to face off in November for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat — one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities as they look to hold onto the upper chamber.
Pappas and Sununu, the favorites in their respective primaries, defeated a handful of challengers Tuesday. While New Hampshire hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, Granite State voters are no strangers to ticket-splitting, selecting a Republican governor and two Democratic House members in 2024.
Meanwhile, Sununu’s victory paired with Republican Anthony DiLorenzo’s win in the Republican primary for Pappas’s open seat in the 1st District offered two final wins for President Trump this primary cycle.
And the nail-biter Democratic primary for Pappas’s open seat was too close to call as of 9:45 p.m. EDT, with just 2 percentage points separating the two frontrunners, according to Decision Desk HQ.
The battle between New Hampshire Democratic Party Vice Chair Maura Sullivan and Stefany Shaheen, a former Portsmouth City Council member and daughter of Jeanne Shaheen, turned personal as attacks focused on the latter’s last name.
Here are three takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries in the Granite State:
Pappas pulls it off despite polling scare
Pappas and Sununu are officially set to duke it out in one of the most watched races for Senate this fall.
The two men dominated primary polling ahead of the race for retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) seat, with both candidates cruising to the general election Tuesday. Yet, a survey in the days ahead cast doubt on Pappas’s commanding lead over scientist Karishma Manzur, a Democratic Socialists of America member.
The House Democrat led Manzur by double digits in the polls ahead of Tuesday’s primary. But a survey from the University of New Hampshire in late August suggested Pappas’s lead narrowed, with Manzur trailing by just 13 percentage points. A poll from St. Anselm College earlier last month showed Pappas beating Manzur by over 30 points.
As of 9:45 p.m. Tuesday, Pappas led Manzur by nearly 30 points, with 50 percent of the vote reported. Sununu, meanwhile, is projected to win his contest by about 41 points with 44 percent of the vote counted.
But, for Democrats, now comes the hard part. Republicans view the open New Hampshire seat as a prime pick-up opportunity, as the GOP looks to hang on to its majority in the upper chamber in November.
Sununu is a well-known commodity in the Granite State, serving in the Senate from 2003-09 after a six-year stint in the House. His father John H. Sununu and brother Chris Sununu both served as governors. Shaheen ousted Sununu from the Senate seat in 2008.
In April, the Senate Leadership Fund announced a $17 million reservation beginning after the primary, while Elon Musk’s America PAC has also spent in the race this summer.
DDHQ forecasts the seat is “likely” to stay in Democrats hands while Cook Political Report says it leans toward the party — a step away from the “toss-up” column. Senate Republicans are already feeling bullish about their chances.
“After personally recruiting Sununu to run, [Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.)] and Senate Republicans have expanded the map and are poised to flip the Granite State,” Senate Leadership Fund Executive Director Alex Latcham said in a statement Tuesday.
“From now until November, SLF will spend every day highlighting John E. Sununu’s positive vision for New Hampshire while exposing the corruption, self-dealing, and radical record of Washington insider Chris Pappas,” Latcham added.
Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), chair of the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, expressed confidence that New Hampshire would elect Pappas in the fall, lauding the congressman for his bipartisan record.
Sununu “wants to go back to Washington to sell out New Hampshire to Donald Trump,” they said in a statement. “Granite Staters have a clear choice, and in November, they will send Chris Pappas to the Senate.”
Trump carries picks across finish line in last primary test
President Trump finished out the 2026 primary season strong, with his last two House and Senate picks of the cycle coming out on top in New Hampshire.
DiLorenzo beat Hollie Noveletsky, the CEO of her family-owned steel fabricator company, for the Republican nod in New Hampshire’s eastern 1st Congressional District. Polling ahead of the primary DiLorenzo and Noveletsky as the frontrunners in the primary that also included three other Republican challengers.
As of 9:45 p.m., DiLorenzo was leading Noveletsky by 24 points with 50 percent of the vote in.
Trump’s pick for Senate — Sununu — also easily won his primary, trouncing former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) and a handful of other Republicans.
Although Tuesday marked a successful night for Trump, he has had mixed results with his primary picks this cycle — notching several high-profile losses and decisive wins over the last several months. All his chosen candidates for Senate have prevailed while his first choices for governor in nearly a half-dozen states fell short this year.
Trump’s grip on the Republican Party in full view this week as the Republican National Committee hosts its first-ever midterm convention on Wednesday and Thursday in Dallas. The president is set to deliver remarks both nights.
It is unclear whether Sununu or DiLorenzo will attend the convention. The Hill has reached out to both campaigns for comment.
Both Sununu and DiLorenzo, however, have an uphill battle in November — the Senate and House contests both lean in Democrats favor.
Trump’s low approval rating paired with tough economic headwinds and the historic trend of the president’s party faring poorly in midterm years are all working against Sununu and DiLorenzo as they look to November.
Still, Sununu narrowly edged out Pappas in recent polling from the University of New Hampshire, as Democrats play defense heading into November.
While primaries have shown that Republicans tend to fare better with the president’s endorsement than without it, both parties are watching to see how Trump’s picks fare in November – and whether it says anything about his influence as all eyes turn toward 2028.
Shaheen, Sullivan locked in nasty primary for Pappas’s seat
The testy race for Pappas’s seat in the House remains too close to call as of 9:45 p.m. EDT Tuesday.
Stefany Shaheen, a health tec entrepreneur, led Maura Sullivan, a former Marine, by nearly a point with 66 percent of the vote reported, about 36 to 35 percent.
Carleigh Beriont, a progressive who teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School, garnered a sizable chunk of the vote — about 24 percent.
Sullivan and Stefany Shaheen have traded barbs on the campaign trail as both moderates courted Democratic voters in the historically purple district, turning ugly in recent months.
Sullivan’s campaign aired ads seeking to use Stefany Shaheen’s name against her, suggesting the health tech entrepreneur felt “entitled” to the district’s vote given her political ties.
The focus on Shaheen’s familial ties comes amid an appetite among voters for new blood in politics — on both sides of the aisle. Several incumbents have lost reelection bids to fresher faces in primaries this year, while voters have also bucked establishment-backed candidates at the polls.
Primary voters in New Hampshire, however, are poised to defy this trend in at least one race, opting for a candidate whose family — the Sununus — has deep ties in the state’s political circles. Stefany Shaheen could be another example if she pulls off her primary bid Tuesday.
The picks of party stalwarts nationally and locally, ranging from Trump to former Vice President Harris, Jeanne Shaheen and New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) also prevailed Tuesday. The three Democrats rallied around Pappas.
The younger Shaheen, a health entrepreneur, took aim at Sullivans donors, accusing the former Marine and Obama era Defense Department official of accepting donations links to Palantir, a contractor for the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), as well as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
Many Democrats on the trail this cycle have faced scrutiny for accepting contributions from the groups given Trump’s immigration crackdown and debate within the Democratic Party over U.S. aid to Israel amid the war in Gaza.
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