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Democrats will happily tell you how good they feel about retaking the House on Tuesday — just as soon as they stop hyperventilating into a paper bag. Why it matters: They've been burned too many times on Election Day to feel anything more than "nauseously optimistic," as one House Democrat put it to Axios. The polls point to a decisive Democratic victory on Nov. 3, yet fears of a massive polling error or some other eleventh-hour disaster are giving party members sleepless nights. "One woman at a rally in New Jersey told me last week that she was 'nauseously optimistic,'" Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told Axios. "That may capture a lot of people's last-minute jitters." A House Democrat who has spoken to leadership told Axios: "They feel optimistic. You know, guarded. Guarded optimism. Where we're going to end up, you never know." State of play: Democrats are targeting dozens of Republican-held seats they think could flip, some of which President Trump carried by 10, 15, even 20 percentage points in 2024. Democrats' House Majority PAC, for instance, went on the air Wednesday in retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's (R-N.Y.) district, which Trump won by 21 points. They also began spending against Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), who won his last reelection with 60% of the vote. HMP is so bullish it has moved money out of the races to replace retiring Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), which they believe Democrats are on track to win handily. "I am cautiously optimistic we win between 20-25 seats," Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told Axios. Democrats' landslide scenario puts them closer to 40 or 50 pickups, which would be a historic night for the party. Yes, but: Mid-decade redistricting in Republican-controlled Southern states is all but certain to cut into those gains. The GOP is expected to easily flip redrawn seats in Tennessee and Louisiana where the incumbent Democrats chose to retire rather than face uphill reelection battles. Democratic leadership is also nervous about several Democrats who opted to run in their new seats, including Reps. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.) and Shomari Figures (D-Ala.), according to three lawmakers familiar with their thinking. What they're saying: All of the nearly 20 House Democrats who spoke to Axios on Wednesday expressed some degree of confidence about the election. "I've been to 26 states this campaign, and I'd say Democrats have been riding a wave of tremendous optimism and activism over the last several months," said Raskin. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) told Axios she is feeling "legitimately good" and that "the cautious optimism is there only because of … history." "The optimism is real and I think for good reason," said Rep. Johnny Olszewski (D-Md.). But virtually everyone also offered reasons for keeping their expectations tempered. "Dems have been burnt by good polling before," Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) told Axios. Min also said Democrats are "hyper-aware of the election tampering that Trump and his goons are engaging in right now," something several other lawmakers echoed. "We're bracing for all manner of drama before, during and after the election," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.). The other side: "The Democrats are trying to deflect from the revelation of their secret, corrupt plan to stack Alaska's ballot," said White House spokesperson Lauren Bis, referring to a New York Times report about the drafting of spoiler Senate candidate Dan J. Sullivan. The Justice Department has sued to delay certification of Alaska's Senate election if Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan narrowly loses. "If these are the types of tactics Democrats need to use to win elections, maybe they should reexamine their radical policies," Bis said. Other Democrats worry that an eleventh-hour spending spree by Republican donors and super PACs will give the GOP a critical boost in the final days of the campaign. "Elon Musk's $366 million infusion to Republican coffers ... has definitely filtered down into a lot of the close House and Senate campaigns and paid for a wall of propaganda," said Raskin. Another House Democrat told Axios that there is "some anxiety about the super PAC money from Rs," which is "mostly coming" from candidates in battleground districts. Zoom in: Lawmakers also pointed to race-specific dynamics that have helped certain Republicans outrun national headwinds. The battle between Democrat Cait Conley and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is "razor-thin close" despite Kamala Harris carrying the district in 2024, a House Democrat from New York told Axios. A House Democrat from Michigan told Axios that Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed's weakness atop the ticket is "hurting" Democratic campaigns in the state's battleground House districts. A House Democrat from Texas told Axios the party will likely fall short in several winnable seats there because of either poor recruitment or insufficient investment from the national party. The bottom line: "There are two ways to run — scared and unopposed," said Scholten. "We're running in tough elections all across the country, and we're going to run hard through the tape in every single one."
document fetched 2026-10-29 03:03 · canonical https://axios.com/2026/10/28/2026-election-democrats-house-midterm-results