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Listen to this article in summarized format The index has breached its 200-week moving average and slipped below the crucial 22,600 level for the first time since the Covid crash. While history offers examples of both sharp rebounds and deeper declines after such breakdowns, LKP Securities’ Senior Technical Analyst Rupak De says investors should remain cautious, reduce high long exposure and wait for a decisive move above 22,600 before adding back positions. If the level continues to cap gains, Nifty could eventually head towards 20,500. Edited excerpts from a chat: Nifty has now entered its eighth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak in 25 years. Does the market have a tendency to bounce back sharply after such consecutive declines? It is a tendency of the market to rise back higher after a contentious correction. At some point, investors will say, “Enough is enough, let’s get into the market.” And this perception becomes contagious and lifts the market like a phoenix rising from the ashes. But the real question here is: after registering eight consecutive weekly declines, will the market reverse the trend in the 9th week, the 10th week, or maybe after the 12th week? For disciplined investors who invest regularly during market declines, this type of continuous fall appears to be a boon. But for short-term traders and MTF traders, timing and market positioning are the most important things. For short-term and MTF participants, 22,600 will be a very important level to watch. If it doesn’t reclaim 22,600 anytime soon, the pain may persist, and more correction may come below 22,200, which might be more severe. So, cutting down on high long exposure will be a good idea as long as Nifty remains below 22,600. Adding back longs might be better when Nifty moves back above 22,600 decisively. Nifty has breached its 200-week moving average and slipped below the 22,600 support zone. What are the next critical support levels? Nifty has fallen below the 200-week moving average for the first time after the Covid crash. Now, this is not a normal breakdown. Let me tell you why. In 2020, the Nifty fell 27% after it slipped below the 200WMA. In 2008, Nifty fell by 38% after slipping below the 200WMA. So, is a big fall coming? Not an easy call yet. Just when you have decided to sell everything after seeing the past two cases, I have a spoiler for the bears. In 2011, 2013 and 2016, Nifty broke below the 200WMA but reversed quickly after a 2–6% correction. So, I don’t think you should take anything for granted. Trade level-wise and remain active. As long as Nifty remains below 22,600, there is a high chance that Nifty might test 20,500. However, that might not come straightaway, and periodic bounces might come, which should be used to reduce long trades. On the other hand, market sentiment might start improving, and investors are likely to come back. Market breadth has deteriorated sharply, with mid- and small-caps also coming under pressure. What are the advance-decline ratio, 52-week low data and breadth indicators telling you about the next phase of the correction? It started with no AI participation by India, US tariffs, then the US-Israel-Iran war leading to a rise in crude oil prices, and lately, a sharp rise in the US 10-year bond yield. All these things have led to massive outflows of FII money. In dollar terms, Nifty’s performance has been even worse, leading to FPI apathy towards the Indian market. On top of that, the fall in the spread between the US and India 10-year bond yields is taking money away from the Indian market. So, breadth has been weak for so many months, which might remain weak in the days to come. It is only government intervention on the capital gains tax front or more intervention by the RBI that might improve the overall Indian market sentiment. How would you go about trading PB Fintech stock that’s down 50% from peak in just a matter of a few days? The stock has corrected heavily lately on the back of a news-driven fall. The stock has broken down below medium-term support, and further correction looks possible. Looks like more pain is waiting, and entering the stock at the current market price is not looking worthwhile technically. How do you read the sell-off in auto stocks after the monthly sales data went below expectations? Most of the auto stocks were not doing great in the recent past. In fact, weakness was already visible in most of the auto stocks, both four-wheelers and two-wheelers. Technically, auto stocks were not looking great, apart from very few. And weaker-than-expected sales numbers just amplified that view. Now, almost all the auto counters are looking very weak. Some are near their support, but the chances of breaking the support look higher. Therefore, avoiding the space for the time being would be a good idea. Give us your top trading ideas of the week: Sell ADANIPORT below Rs 1,730; SL Rs 1,760; target Rs 1,670 (spot levels) The stock has reversed its near-term trend, closing significantly lower after a positive breakout two days earlier. The daily RSI has formed a bearish crossover. Sentiment has turned bearish and could weaken further below Rs 1,730. Selling below Rs 1,730 on a spot basis appears favourable. The stock could decline towards Rs 1,670 or lower, while resistance is placed at Rs 1,760. Buy NYKAA above Rs 325; SL Rs 314; target Rs 343 The stock has found support at its previous congestion low, leading to a higher close. A Piercing Line pattern has formed on the daily chart. The hourly RSI is in a bullish crossover and is emerging from the near-oversold zone. Positive divergence is also visible on the hourly RSI, indicating potential near-term gains. Sell LT below Rs 3,689; SL Rs 3,740; target Rs 3,600 (spot levels) The stock has fallen below its previous swing low on the daily chart, increasing the risk of further weakness. The price has filled the previously visible gap; however, this does not automatically make it a reversal point, contrary to popular belief. Sentiment remains weak, and the theory that prices fall to fill gaps typically applies in a bull market, not in conditions such as these. Further weakness is likely if the stock slips below Rs 3,689 again. (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
document fetched 2026-10-05 02:56