loading
loading
(Bloomberg) -- US stocks are hovering near record highs, unfazed by the war with Iran, stubborn inflation and mounting questions over how Wall Street will finance the expanding AI buildout. But for investors looking for a scare this Halloween, some of the market’s most unsettling signals are hiding just beneath the surface. From violent swings in semiconductor shares and ballooning AI-related debt, to a stock-bond hedge that’s lost some of its reliability, as well as a widening wealth divide, the charts occupying Wall Street’s attention paint a less comforting picture than the major indexes might suggest. Bloomberg News asked nine financial professionals what charts spook them. Here’s what they shared: Conrad DeQuadros, head of economics for Citi Wealth: We find concerning the consensus forecasts for slower inflation in 2027 given recent data on prices. The consensus forecast for PCE inflation in 2027 is 2.5% and the average of the top 10 forecasts is 3.1%. Similarly, the Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections show a median forecast of 2.3% PCE inflation next year and no FOMC participant sees inflation above 2.6% in 2027. Thus, even the most pessimistic forecasts don’t envisage inflation running higher than current rates next year. These projections, which for private economists are based on the hope that the impulse from tariffs will fade, and oil prices will decline on the cessation of hostilities, have little support in the data. The PPI report shows scary trends in pipeline manufacturing goods prices with, for example, core processed goods PPI prices surging 24.3% over the last year. This is beginning to look like 2021/22, and if these soaring pipeline prices feed into finished goods prices, this may give Fed policymakers nightmares. Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pacific Investment Management Co.: The AI boom has raised concerns about a potential “crowding out” of other companies that want to borrow in the capital markets, potentially increasing the concentration of AI in a U.S. economy already dependent on the tech sector for growth. This chart shows that AI-related investment is becoming a greater share of GDP, while other private fixed investment has declined. This is a pattern consistent with crowding out. Higher interest rates and financing costs – credit spreads on riskier borrowers, for example, have widened – are likely contributing factors. Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist for Man Group: I believe wealth inequality is a much bigger issue than income inequality and poses serious risks for the economy and political stability. High wealth concentration negatively impacts aggregate demand because high-net-worth individuals have a lower marginal propensity to consume, so that can lead to sluggish consumer spending. In addition, high wealth concentration means many households have very limited levels of assets, so they don’t have adequate savings to provide a safety net in an economic downturn. While the bottom 50% of households have seen extremely weak growth in net worth, they hold a large portion of the debt – and a large percentage of that debt is consumer credit. With rates on the rise, the bottom 50% of households are under even more pressure as they attempt to service that debt. This can have a negative impact on the US economy, which is so dependent on consumer spending. It can also negatively impact portions of the stock market; earnings growth for the consumer discretionary sector is already forecast to drop 3.4% next year (source: Factset, October 23, 2026). Kevin Green, vice president, investment solutions group at Dimensional Fund Advisors: New initial public offerings (IPOs) often draw excitement from investors. But once reality sinks in, IPOs may seem like more of a drag. Research shows that IPOs added to an index have generally underperformed the overall index within their first year since listing and weighed down investor returns. Winnie Cisar, global head of strategy at CreditSights: There’s a ghost in the AI machine. US utilities have already signed enough power capacity for roughly 153 gigawatts of data center compute, about 1.8 times the new demand that even the most AI-bullish forecasts expect through 2030. We’ve seen this story before: power generation in the late 1990s, dark fiber in the 2000s, shale in the 2010s. Compute is still scarce today, but as Big Tech brings massive owned capacity online, the highly levered neoclouds risk becoming the dark fiber of this cycle, and the scare begins when the first one blinks and cuts capex. Jonathan Keetz, portfolio manager and chief operating officer at Cambria Investment Management: Bonds hedging stocks is the entire argument for owning both, and it was reliably true from 2001 to 2022, but across the record it’s been true 24% of the time. Three-quarters of market history looks like right now, not like the period everyone learned from. What’s uncomfortable isn’t that the stock/bond correlation has turned positive; it’s positive more often than not. It’s that every 60/40 backtest ever run, every risk model calibrated on modern data, and the bulk of most finance careers sit inside the 21-year negative correlation window. It reads 0.53 today, the highest since January 1998, and the aggregate bond index gives 0.63, so it’s not just one series misbehaving. As Markowitz is usually paraphrased, diversification is the closest thing to a free lunch in investing. Investors should look to build a global portfolio diversified across asset classes. George Pearkes, macro strategist for Bespoke Investment Group: There are plenty of scary charts floating around right now, but the spookiest might be the analogues between the end of the tech bubble in 2000 and the 2026 mid-year peak for momentum and semis. Both trades look eerily similar to the last, manic blow-off top led by tech over a quarter century ago. The ultimate fright for the market is that these two patterns presage the same kind of collapse that they did in 2000. An old adage often attributed to Mark Twain says history rhymes, but doesn’t repeat. Stock bulls should hope that’s true this time around! Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers: High yield spreads, on an overall basis, have been rising alongside Treasuries. That said, the spread for a broad basket of high-yield vs Treasuries has not been widening too much. But when we look more specifically at CCC yields, those have exploded. This is not a good precedent, especially with an FOMC that seems committed to reducing monetary accommodation. The weakest credits are feeling the pinch — the question is whether that affects next tier of credit and eventually equities. Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer at Syzygy Asset Management: Like the U.S., emerging markets (EEM) are meaningfully consolidating, particularly in 2026. South Korea and Taiwan, on average 25% of allocations, are now a full 50% of the index, while Information Technology allocations have also doubled. Today, emerging market diversification is no longer what it once was. More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com ©2026 Bloomberg L.P. Catch all the Business News , Market News , Breaking News Events, JIO IPO Listing Today LIVE and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates. Oops! Looks like you have exceeded the limit to bookmark the image. Remove some to bookmark this image.
document fetched 2026-11-01 02:57 · canonical https://livemint.com/market/inflation-inequality-and-debt-the-charts-scaring-wall-street-11793452322227.html