The Fed meeting, Ford earnings, Trump's investment portfolio and more in Morning Squawk
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This is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox. Happy Wednesday. From "oil" to "shock," here are the keywords Kalshi traders think Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will say at his press conference this afternoon. Stock futures are lower this morning after a mixed day on Wall Street. Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day: 1. Read between the lines Markets are largely expecting the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged this afternoon, even as several central bank officials hint there could be reason to consider a hike. That puts the spotlight on Warsh's 2:30 p.m. ET press conference, where investors will closely watch for signs of division within the Fed. Here's what to know: - Despite recent talk of a possible rate hike, CNBC's Matt Peterson explains why there are at least three reasons Warsh likely won't let that happen. - President Donald Trump, who has consistently pushed for lower rates, called Warsh "fantastic" earlier this week but said other members of the central bank's Board of Governors "are very political" and "perhaps have bad intentions." - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 500 points yesterday, extending its win streak to three sessions heading into the Fed's decision. - Stock futures are lower before the bell after Trump said the U.S. will hit Iran "hard" in response to an attempted Iranian attack on American forces in the Middle East. Oil prices jumped more than 6%. - Follow live market updates here. 2. Ford fiesta Shares of Ford jumped more than 5% in extended trading after the automaker reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter and hiked its earnings forecast for the full year. Revenue for the period came in below Wall Street's estimates, though. "Most important for this quarter, the business isn't just executing to plan. The business has been able to absorb headwinds as they've come at us," CFO Sherry House told CNBC's Phil LeBeau yesterday. Two fires at an aluminum supplier led to production problems for the automaker. But House said on a media call that production of the F-Series pickup truck will continue to recover in the second half of this year and reaffirmed a $1 billion improvement from last year's reported impact. 3. Following the money A CNBC analysis of Trump's 2025 annual financial disclosure paints the clearest picture yet of who is managing Trump's $850 million investing portfolio. The disclosure, filed with the Office of Government Ethics, links JPMorgan Chase, Charles Schwab, UBS and Stephens Inc. to at least four of Trump's eight numbered accounts. CNBC's findings were corroborated by three industry experts. Financial experts told CNBC's Luke Fountain that the arrangements put the banks in a unique position, given the president's power to shape financial policy and regulation. Asked about Trump's banfwithking, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said that there "are no conflicts of interest." 4. Call now, pay later Apple will soon allow customers to lease its smartphones and other products through a partnership with Klarna. As part of the so-called Upgrade program, shoppers can pay as little as $17.99 a month for up to two years to lease an iPhone. As CNBC's Kif Leswing and MacKenzie Sigalos note, the leasing program follows the company's recent decision to hike some of its prices. Apple's market cap briefly hit $5 trillion for the first time yesterday. The iPhone maker is set to report its quarterly results tomorrow followed by Tim Cook's last earnings call as Apple's CEO. 5. Just lost it Nike once ruled in China. Now, its sales in the country are stumbling. Nike's year-over-year sales have dropped for eight straight quarters, even as sports-related products gain traction in the country. Business in China, which was once the company's fastest-growing region, has declined 30% since 2021. As CNBC's Gabrielle Fonrouge reports, experts say the athletic apparel maker has lost its relevance with the Chinese consumer base as younger shoppers opt for domestic brands. "In a way, Nike has just become irrelevant," said Yaling Jiang, an expert on the Chinese consumer. "I don't think young people can remember what's the last new thing they've done." The Daily Dividend Visa is planning layoffs that will mostly target its technology and product operations, according to a memo confirmed by CNBC. Here are the approximate numbers to know: - Number of positions eliminated: 2,600 - Share of workforce impacted: 7% — CNBC's Jeff Cox, Matt Peterson, Ananya Chetia, Jessica Dickler, Liz Napolitano, Michael Wayland, Luke Fountain, Kif Leswing, MacKenzie Sigalos, Gabrielle Fonrouge and Hugh Son contributed to this report. Luke Fountain assisted in the production of this newsletter. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition. Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. Correction: Apple will report quarterly results on Thursday, July 30. A previous version of this newsletter misstated the day.
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