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Gold prices were headed for a weekly decline owing to elevated US real yields, a firm dollar and hawkish central-bank policies. Bullion was trading around $4,270 an ounce, down over 2.5% this week. Meanwhile, in today's deals, Spot gold fell 0.1% to $4,271.54 an ounce at 7:50 a.m. in Singapore. "Gold is holding below $4,300 an ounce, at $4,288 globally, after a sharp fall in the previous session, with MCX gold slipping to ₹1,50,900 per 10 grams as a stronger dollar and surging Treasury yields squeeze the metal on both fronts. The dollar index has climbed to the 101 mark, its highest level in almost two months, while the US 10-year yield is trading near 5.11%, its highest since July 2007, after stronger-than-expected private-sector data reinforced the case for further tightening. Markets are now pricing in a 70% probability of another Fed rate hike in October, up sharply from 55% just a day earlier. Adding to the mix, Iran's president used his UN General Assembly address to warn that Tehran will not allow freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while sanctions remain in place, keeping a geopolitical bid under the market even as rate expectations pull the other way," said Ashish Rajodiya, Head – Commodities, PL Capital. Moreover, all eyes were on the Trump-Xi summit, with markets hoping for some forward movement on trade. Xi's visit — his first to the US in nearly three years — was never billed as a breakthrough moment, but there was real hope Washington and Beijing could stretch their 11-month trade truce a little further. That hope firmed up when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed a deal on the extension, shortly after Trump personally welcomed Xi at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. Despite short-term pressure, analysts expect structural factors such as central-bank buying, reserve diversification and rising US fiscal risks to keep the longer-term outlook supportive. Elara expects gold to trade between $4,200 and $4,700 per troy ounce (around ₹1.48 lakh- ₹1.66 lakh per 10 gm) for the rest of CY26. It expects prices to rise further to $5,000-$5,200 per ounce (around ₹1.76 lakh- ₹1.84 lakh per 10 gm) by end-CY27 as the pace and magnitude of central-bank tightening softens. "Gold prices have rebounded by 8.4% from their CY26 low as on 22 September, following a 26% decline from CY26 YTD peak amid the Middle East conflict and a sharp rise in US 10Y real yield. While near-term headwinds remain, we believe structural factors – including rising US fiscal risks, the declining safe haven appeal of UST bonds, the re-emergence of sanctions, sustained retail & Central bank demand from China, support a positive long-term outlook for gold," said brokerage house Elara Securiites in a recent report. However, for the near term, Rajodiya of PL predicted that with the Fed's tightening path now the dominant driver, the next test for gold is whether incoming US data keeps running hot — another strong print would likely open the door to a slide toward the $4,200s, while any sign of the labour market cooling, or a fresh escalation out of the Gulf, could quickly bring buyers back in. Similarly, Elara also noted that over the next 2-3 quarters, we expect a range-bound outcome for gold, but in the long term, upside remains intact. A de-escalation of the Middle East conflict, which eases oil prices and lowers real rates, may support gold prices,” Elara said. According to Elara Securities, gold’s long-term outlook remained supported by sustained central-bank buying and efforts to diversify foreign exchange reserves. The brokerage highlighted rising US fiscal risks and the potential spillover into the dollar, while renewed sanctions could further push central banks away from paper assets. “Global central banks are buying gold as a strategic, non-sanctionable, zero-counterparty-risk reserve asset rather than a tactical trade. On a YTD basis, central banks reported purchases have totaled around 130 tonne of gold,” Elara Securities said. Reported purchases stood at around 130 tonnes YTD, versus 160 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, 45% of global central banks were adding gold to reserves YoY as of Q2CY26, up from 32% in Q4CY21. Elara expects buying to rise as prices soften. However, it expects gold to remain range-bound over the next two to three quarters amid hawkish developed-market policies, elevated US real rates and a firm dollar. Its model showed a 100-basis-point YoY rise in DXY corresponded with a 130-basis-point decline in gold prices. Elara also noted Brent-gold correlation had shifted from +10% in CY10-19 to -31% since March 2026. Softer oil following Middle East de-escalation could support gold, although monetary policy may cap gains. Gold prices remained under pressure as higher bond yields and a stronger US dollar weighed on bullion, while expectations of another US rate hike added to the near-term uncertainty. Analysts, however, maintained a range-bound to bullish outlook, with key support and resistance levels likely to guide trading sentiment. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said rising yields and the Dollar Index moving above 101 had pushed gold lower by around ₹1,000 to ₹1,50,350. “Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of another rate hike in October, with higher rates and yields raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. Going ahead, the rate outlook, dollar movement and bond yields will remain key triggers,” Trivedi said. He expects gold to trade within a range of ₹1,48,000- ₹1,52,500 in the near term. Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer, said spot gold was trading in the $4,250-$4,450 range, equivalent to around ₹1,50,000- ₹1,54,000, while retaining a bullish bias. “Spot gold is trading in a $4,250-$4,450 range with a bullish bias. Buy on dips near support and sell into rallies,” Chainani said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions. Pranati Deva is a seasoned financial journalist with over a decade of experience in high-pressure newsroom environments, currently working as a Senior Sub Editor at LiveMint. Over the years, she has developed a reputation for sharp editorial judgement, a strong grasp of market dynamics, and the ability to translate complex financial developments into clear, engaging stories for a wide audience. <br><br> Her core areas of coverage include stock markets, leading listed companies, currencies, and commodities, with a particular strength in fast-paced, real-time market reporting. 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