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The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, despite inflation rising well above its 2% target, but warned a hike was becoming increasingly likely. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The three dissenters voted to enact a hike of 25 basis points to 4%. Markets had been pricing in a 76% chance that the bank will hold interest rates steady on Thursday, according to LSEG data, but a hike of at least 25 basis points is widely anticipated at its next meeting in November. The hold marks a divergence from other major central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point hike on Wednesday, its first hike since 2023. Last week, the European Central Bank announced its second rate hike this year, after raising rates in June for the first time in three years. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its key interest rate at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday. Read more "So far, higher global energy costs have had a limited effect on price and wage setting in the U.K.," Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement Thursday. "But the longer this volatility persists, the bigger the impact it will have on inflation, and the more likely it is we will need to raise Bank Rate to ensure that inflation falls back to our 2% target." But MPC members who voted to raise rates pointed to uncertainty arising from the Iran war and a need to get ahead of its potential economic ramifications. Dissenters point to upside risks to inflation Catherine L Mann, an MPC member and former global chief economist at Citibank, argued the upside risks to inflation had increased since July, when she also voted in favor of a hike. "The 'sporadic continuance' of conflict has ratcheted up energy prices well above the baseline from the July Report," she said, noting that the Bank of England's short-term inflation forecast projected the consumer price index rising above 4% in early 2027." She continued: "Raising [the] Bank Rate is a better risk-management strategy when faced with uncertainty about inflation dynamics and second-round effects. Doing so avoids a worse outcome whereby inflation becomes embedded, which requires even tighter policy later." Megan Greene, who also dissented from the majority vote, pointed to uncertainty about the extent of second-round effects of the Iran war, AI-related supply constraints and the El Niño climate event as sources of inflationary pressure. The third MPC member who voted to tighten monetary policy was Huw Pill, who said raising rates would have sent a "clear signal of the MPC's commitment to achieving its price stability mandate amidst the fog of geopolitical conflict and data noise." "Raising Bank Rate would put the MPC in a better place to address risks to price stability as these uncertainties unfold, especially since any resulting second-round effects, once entrenched, are costly to overcome," he said. "Acting decisively now cuts through in a way that bolsters the clarity and effectiveness of policy choices, thereby heading off inflationary pressures rather having to reverse them once they become ingrained." UK inflation hit 3.1% in August The Bank of England has not changed rates since December, when it voted for a 25-basis-point cut. Data released Wednesday showed that the U.K.'s inflation rate rose to 3.1% in August, its first rise above 3% since March. The country's Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the spike was largely driven by rising motor fuel costs, which surged 23% year-on-year. As a net energy importer, the U.K. is particularly vulnerable to external energy shocks, and is still grappling with a cost-of-living crisis brought on by post-Covid inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war's impact on natural gas supplies. Global inflation concerns, political instability and apprehension about U.K. fiscal policy have put pressure on British government bonds, known as gilts, this year. Britain has the highest borrowing costs in the G7, with yields on its long-dated 20- and 30-year gilts approaching the 6% mark. Gilt yields fell sharply after the decision was announced, with the benchmark 10-year U.K. government bond yield down 8 basis points to 5.2169%, while 30-year gilt yields shed nearly 12 basis points to trade at 5.7415%. Scott Gardner, investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Personal Investing, said in a note after the decision announcement that the bank was "biding its time." "Despite headline inflation creeping up over the summer, the labour market continues to soften while closely-watched core and services inflation have both been relatively resilient since the Middle East conflict started," he said. "So far, the UK economy has largely been insulated from the conflict, aside from higher energy bills. However, the longer the war continues, the harder it is to see that resilience holding." "The Bank seems to be more relaxed on inflation risks than their international counterparts, although the markets are setting borrowing costs at present anyway," Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton, said in a note. "With the expectation being for a number of hikes through the end of this year in to middle of next, the gilt market may be more susceptible to a move the other way."
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