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Brazil’s election this weekend will reshape the diplomatic strategy of Latin America’s biggest economy, analysts said. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is in effect tied with his main challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, though neither appears likely to win outright in Sunday’s first-round vote, necessitating a runoff. The EU, which spent years working with the incumbent to repair ties that were battered under the leadership of Bolsonaro’s father, will be watching closely, fearing Brasília could pivot harder towards Washington. Neither candidate has a strategy for combatting Brazil’s growing dependence on China for trade, a key issue in the presidential race. One thing is for certain, however: Bolsonaro’s brother has threatened any diplomats whom the family believe “sabotaged” their father’s presidency.
document fetched 2026-10-03 02:55 · canonical https://semafor.com/article/10/02/2026/brazil-faces-uncertain-diplomatic-future-ahead-of-elections