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Samvat 2083: Eight triggers that can reverse the current negative market sentiment - Published OnOct 28, 2026 | 06:49 IST - Last Updated OnOct 28, 2026 | 06:49 IST Axis Securities has outlined potential catalysts that could improve the outlook for Indian equities, ranging from a correction in crude oil prices and stabilisation in foreign investor flows to an earnings recovery and greater clarity on India-US trade negotiations. After two consecutive months of market weakness driven by identifiable macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, a reversal in those pressures could help revive investor sentiment, according to brokerage firm Axis Securities. In its note ahead of Samvat 2083, the brokerage has outlined eight potential catalysts that could improve the outlook for Indian equities, ranging from a correction in crude oil prices and stabilisation in foreign investor flows to an earnings recovery and greater clarity on India-US trade negotiations. 1. A decline in crude oil prices and easing West Asia tensions Brent crude surged to around $114 per barrel on October 23 amid escalating tensions in West Asia, raising concerns about inflation, input costs and corporate earnings. Axis Securities believes a sustained retreat in oil prices towards $85-90 per barrel could help ease these pressures, support the rupee and improve overall market sentiment. Oil marketing companies, paint manufacturers, airlines, tyre makers, chemical companies and consumption-oriented businesses could be among the key beneficiaries of lower crude prices. 2. Greater clarity on the interest rate outlook The Reserve Bank of India's October policy commentary suggests limited room for near-term monetary easing, with the possibility of an extended pause or even a further rate hike if inflationary pressures broaden. The US Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting is another important event for global markets. According to Axis Securities, signs of moderating inflation alongside stable crude prices could improve the outlook for interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), housing finance, automobiles, real estate and consumer durables. 3. A recovery in foreign portfolio investor flows Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have continued to sell Indian equities, with net outflows reaching approximately ₹52,353 crore in October through October 22, according to the brokerage's note. A sustained moderation in crude prices, a more stable rupee and easing US bond yields could help restore foreign investor appetite for Indian equities. Large-cap financial, information technology and consumer stocks could benefit from a revival in overseas inflows. However, Axis Securities cautions that an improvement in valuations alone may not be sufficient to sustain a market recovery; an actual turnaround in foreign flows would be important. 4. A sustained recovery in corporate earnings A durable rebound in equities will require an improvement in corporate earnings, rather than relying solely on a recovery in investor sentiment. Axis Securities recommends monitoring the September and December-quarter results for signs of stronger demand, resilient margins, healthy order inflows and improved management guidance. A stabilisation in consensus earnings estimates would be an important signal that the pressure on corporate profitability is easing and could help support market valuations. 5. Conclusion of the India-US trade agreement Progress towards finalising an India-US trade agreement could provide another positive trigger for equities. According to the note, the negotiations were nearing finalisation, based on the government’s position at the time of writing. A concluded agreement that clarifies tariff commitments and improves market access could reduce uncertainty for Indian exporters. Textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering goods and other export-oriented industries could be among the sectors that benefit from greater clarity on trade terms. 6. Union Budget and continuity in public capital expenditure The Union Budget expected in early 2027 could act as an important domestic catalyst for the market. Axis Securities believes continued spending on infrastructure, defence, railways and power, alongside fiscal discipline, would help sustain investment-led economic growth. Measures that strengthen consumption or encourage private-sector investment could provide an additional boost to sentiment, particularly towards capital goods and infrastructure companies. 7. Resilience in domestic investor flows Domestic investment flows have helped cushion the impact of sustained foreign selling. Monthly systematic investment plan (SIP) contributions reached a record ₹32,490 crore in September 2026, according to the brokerage. Continued domestic participation, combined with a moderation in FPI outflows, could provide meaningful support to equities. However, Axis Securities notes that a prolonged period of market weakness could eventually weigh on retail investor confidence and risk appetite. 8. A sustained moderation in inflation India’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose to 5.54% in September 2026, while the RBI's inflation forecast for FY27 stood at 5.2%, according to the figures cited in the note. Elevated crude oil prices and food inflation remain key risks to the outlook. A sustained decline in energy and food prices could ease pressure on household budgets, support purchasing power and give the RBI greater flexibility in its monetary policy decisions. This could benefit consumption-oriented sectors while improving the broader outlook for equities. Taken together, these eight factors point to the importance of a reversal in the economic and market pressures that have weighed on equities. For a sustained recovery in Samvat 2083, investors will be watching for tangible improvements in crude prices, inflation, earnings and foreign flows, alongside greater policy and trade clarity. Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on CNBCTV18.com are their own and not that of the website or its management. CNBCTV18.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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