Crude shock to hit oil companies' margins, but refining gains could save Q2 show

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Oil breached $100 a barrel this month with Brent crude at around $107 as US-Iran clashes stoked supply fears. Retail fuel marketing margins are expected to turn into a loss of ₹7.4 per litre for petrol and ₹10.3 per litre for diesel in September, according to ICICI Securities estimates. However, it is unlikely to erase improvement seen during the first two months of the quarter. The broker estimates marketing margins at ₹2.9 per litre for petrol and ₹1.3 per litre for diesel for each of the three OMCs in September quarter, compared with losses of ₹6.1 and ₹18.9 per litre, respectively, in the June quarter.
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The June quarter was particularly difficult for OMCs because higher crude prices along with freight costs weighed heavily on marketing margins. The situation improved in the September quarter. Crude prices fell sharply to around $68 a barrel in the first half of July, as West Asia tensions eased. This helped auto-fuel marketing margins recover sequentially. The full impact of the increase in auto-fuel prices announced in May is also expected to support OMC marketing margins in the September quarter.
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Emkay Global Financial Services expects OMC margins to improve substantially to around ₹9-14 per litre in the current quarter, compared with ₹1-3 per litre in the June quarter. Each of the three OMCs including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation reported net losses in the June quarter amid supressed marketing margins.
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