Should you buy HDFC Bank shares? Stock slips 2% to hit a 52-week low- Experts suggest what investors should do

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HDFC Bank share price declined almost 2% to hit its fresh 52-week low in intraday deals on the BSE on Friday, 11 September. The banking stock opened at ₹685 against its previous close of ₹694 and declined 1.7% to hit its 52-week low of ₹682. It hit a 52-week high of ₹1,020.35 on 23 October last year.
Once a favourite of stock market investors, HDFC Bank shares have been under pressure for several years now. As per the BSE data, the stock delivered a negative return of 12% over the last five years compared to a 28% jump in Sensex in the same period.
In the last one year, the stock has declined 29%, while year-to-date, it has shed over 30%.
HDFC Bank's financial performance in the last financial year (FY26) fell short of expectations.
According to the company's annual report, its total net revenue rose 13.6% to
₹1,91,218.6 crore in FY26 from ₹1,68,302.4 crore in the previous year. Revenue growth was driven by an increase in both net interest income and fees and commission. Net profit increased by 10.9% to ₹74,671.3 crore from ₹67,347.4 crore.
Net Interest Income (NII) grew by 4.9% to ₹1,28,686.0 crore. Net interest margin (NIM) stood at 3.34% in FY26.
Deposits increased 14.4% YoY to ₹31,05,250 crore, while advances rose by 12.1% YoY to ₹29,37,166 crore.
The latest development on the leadership reset also has acted as a dampener of sentiment. Its MD and CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan announced that he would not seek re-appointment for another term after his current tenure ends on October 26, 2026.
Brokerage firm PL Capital said Jagdishan's exit would be negative and near-term pressure may persist till succession clarity emerges, although stock is attractive at 1.4 times March 2028E core ABV, but medium-term return would hinge on strategy and execution.
PL Capital trimmed the target price to ₹950 from ₹1,040, while maintaining a buy recommendation on the stock.
On valuation, the stock trades at a price-to-book of nearly 1.76 times against a reported ROE of 13.6%, which, as per Vinit Bolinjkar, the head of research at Ventura, is a meaningful discount to where the stock has historically traded, largely due to the post-merger balance sheet adjustment with erstwhile HDFC, not any deterioration in the underlying business.
Bolinjkar underscored that the market has been cautious on HDFC Bank due to the pace at which HDFC Bank is normalising its loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) post-merger. Moreover, the near-term drag from NIM compression and a moderating CASA mix has added to that caution, even though the bank's asset quality and profitability have stayed resilient through this phase.
According to Bolinjkar, the stock's current price reflects this integration-related caution rather than any real credit or earnings issue.
"With the stock trading near multi-quarter lows and core fundamentals intact, the risk-reward favours accumulation for investors with a 12-18 month horizon, as continued deposit mobilisation, CASA recovery, and NIM stabilisation should support a gradual re-rating," said Bolinjkar.
"Sustained improvement in the loan-to-deposit ratio, a stabilising-to-improving CASA ratio, and net interest margin bottoming out over the next 2-3 quarters are the key triggers to monitor," said Bolinjkar.
On the technical front, HDFC Bank stock appears to be heavily oversold, with the weekly RSI trading below the conventional oversold zone.
However, Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, underscored that despite the stock making lower lows on the price chart, the RSI is not making corresponding lower lows, indicating the formation of a bullish divergence.
This suggests that downside momentum may be weakening and raises the possibility of base formation in the ₹670–690 zone, said Patel.
However, bullish divergence alone does not confirm a reversal; price confirmation is still required.
According to Patel, the stock needs to stabilise around this zone and subsequently reclaim important resistance levels to signal a meaningful recovery.
"The major support is placed at ₹660, and a sustained break below this level could extend the weakness further. On the upside, ₹735 is the key resistance, and a decisive breakout above this level would strengthen the reversal setup. Hence, we expect consolidation/base formation around ₹670– ₹690 before any meaningful reversal," said Patel.
Pravesh Gour, a senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart, underscored that HDFC Bank is currently in a strong corrective phase after facing major resistance around ₹1,000– ₹1,020.
"The stock remains below its key short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating continued weakness in the broader trend. The immediate support zone is ₹650– ₹680, which is crucial for the stock to maintain its long-term structure. A decisive weekly close below ₹650 could trigger further downside toward ₹600– ₹620. On the upside, ₹750– ₹780 is the first important resistance, followed by ₹820– ₹850, where strong selling pressure may emerge," said Gour.
The RSI is around 35, reflecting weak momentum and proximity to oversold conditions, but it has not yet generated a convincing reversal signal. MACD remains in negative territory, confirming bearish momentum.
However, Gour added that the stock is approaching a significant support area where a technical bounce is possible.
"A sustained move above ₹780, supported by rising volumes and improving RSI and MACD, would provide the first indication of trend improvement. The chart remains bearish-to-neutral, and investors should watch ₹650– ₹680 closely. Holding this zone could lead to a recovery toward ₹750– ₹850, while a breakdown below ₹650 would increase downside risk toward ₹600," said Gour.
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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
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