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Stock market recap: Indian equities snapped a two-day winning streak on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates for the first time since February 2023. The Nifty 50 fell 173.05 points, or 0.76%, to close at 22,603.05, after touching a low of 22,546.30. The Sensex lost 429.11 points, or 0.59%, to settle at 72,638.70. The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and shifted its stance to “calibrated tightening”, signalling that rate cuts are off the table for now. It also raised its growth forecast for the financial year to 7.1% and its inflation forecast to 5.2%, citing high crude oil and food prices. Metals, consumer durables, autos and IT led the decline. Titan fell about 4% after its quarterly jewellery growth missed expectations. Reliance Industries rose nearly 3% on expectations of a Jio Platforms IPO, while Kotak Mahindra Bank extended its gains. Bank Nifty recovered sharply from its lows to end nearly flat. Market breadth remained negative, with 1,549 stocks advancing, 2,043 declining and 98 unchanged. Investors will now watch quarterly earnings and global crude-oil trends for direction. Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India: Buy: Mtar Technologies Ltd (current price: ₹7,885) - Why it’s recommended: Strong order inflow from clean energy, civil nuclear, defense, and space sectors, supported by long-term relationships with key global OEMs and Indian strategic programs. Expanding contribution from hydrogen electrolyzer components and precision engineering capabilities, positioning the company to benefit from the energy transition and localization trends. - Key metrics: P/E: 174.41, 52-week high: ₹8,714.00, volume: ₹86.79 crore - Technical analysis: Trendline Breakout - Risk factors: High customer concentration risk, with a significant portion of revenue dependent on a few large customers and strategic projects. Execution delays or slowdown in government-led defense, nuclear, space, and clean-energy investments could impact order conversion and revenue growth. - Buy: ₹7,806–7,924 - Target price: ₹9,100 in two to three months - Stop loss: ₹7,300 Buy: Aegis Logistics LTd (current price: ₹1,460) - Why it’s recommended: Market leadership in LPG import, storage, and distribution infrastructure, benefiting from rising LPG consumption and increasing energy demand in India. Expansion of liquid and gas terminal capacities, along with growing logistics infrastructure, supports volume growth and operating leverage. - Key metrics: P/E: 33.19, 52-week high: ₹1,528.70, volume: ₹248.41 crore - Technical analysis: Trendline Breakout - Risk factors: Earnings remain sensitive to fluctuations in LPG demand, import volumes, and regulatory changes affecting the energy and logistics sectors. Large-capex infrastructure projects face risks related to approvals, execution delays, and lower-than-expected utilization of terminal assets. - Buy at: ₹1,445–1,467 - Target price: ₹1,700 in two to three months - Stop loss: ₹1,345 How Nifty 50 performed Indian equities ended lower on Wednesday, snapping a two-session relief rally as investors digested the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 25-basis-point repo-rate hike to 5.50% and shift to a “calibrated tightening” stance. Elevated crude-oil prices, rupee weakness and continued foreign selling also weighed on sentiment. The Nifty 50 closed at 22,603.05, down 173.05 points, or 0.76%, after trading between 22,546.30 and 22,717.65, indicating some buying interest near the day’s lows. Broader market breadth was weak, with 1,549 stocks advancing, 2,043 declining and 98 unchanged, translating into an advance-decline ratio of roughly 0.76:1. Metals (-2.33%), realty (-1.77%), autos (-1.58%) and IT (-1.34%) led the sectoral declines. PSU banks (+1.00%) and media (+0.69%) were among the few sectors to gain. Persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) selling remained an overhang after foreign investors sold ₹2,961 crore of equities in the previous session. Bearish structure intact The Nifty 50 remains firmly entrenched in a bearish price structure, with price action forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The recent breakdown below the horizontal consolidation area has reinforced selling pressure, while the index is trading decisively below its key short-, medium- and long-term moving averages. The broader trendline structure has also deteriorated following the earlier breakdown of the rising trendline, reinforcing the downward bias. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 33.13, recovering modestly from oversold territory but remaining below the neutral 50 mark. This suggests momentum remains weak, with the recent uptick looking more like a technical rebound than a confirmed trend reversal. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) remains firmly negative at approximately -344, below the signal line near -314, with the histogram still below zero. Key levels to watch The index snapped its two-session winning streak and closed near 22,600, reflecting renewed selling pressure at higher levels. From a technical perspective, 22,200-22,000 remains a critical support zone. A sustained breakdown below this band could further weaken the market structure and open the way for a decline towards 21,700-21,600. On the upside, any recovery is likely to face strong resistance at 22,800-23,000, which has emerged as a key technical hurdle following the recent breakdown. How did the Nifty Bank perform? Nifty Bank opened on a negative note at 54,583.05 but initially moved higher, touching an intraday high of 55,091.45. However, profit-taking emerged near the day’s high, dragging the index to a low of 54,066.60. It recovered from lower levels but still closed 182.30 points, or 0.33%, lower at 54,450.75. The index formed a bearish spinning-top candle with long shadows, reflecting heightened volatility and indecision between buyers and sellers. Despite the late recovery, it remained below its 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, keeping the broader bearish structure intact. Elevated volumes pointed to active participation, while the inability to sustain levels above 55,000 suggested that sellers continued to dominate recovery attempts. The RSI fell to 32.80 and remained below its average line of 37.72, indicating weak momentum and proximity to oversold territory. While this positioning could support a technical rebound, a sustained recovery would require the RSI to reclaim the 40–45 zone. The MACD remained below the zero line, with the MACD line at -691.33 versus the signal line at -505.63. The negative histogram widened to 185.70 points, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. However, the long lower shadow and improving demand near 54,000 suggest that downside momentum could temporarily moderate if this support level holds. Immediate support is placed at 54,000–54,050, followed by 53,500 and 53,000. A decisive break below 54,000 could extend the decline towards the March–April swing zone around 52,500–52,000. On the upside, resistance is seen at 55,000–55,100, followed by the 21-DMA near 56,083. The 56,500–57,125 region, which contains the remaining key moving averages, represents a stronger supply zone. Elevated crude oil prices, rupee weakness and persistent foreign selling could keep sentiment cautious, while uncertainty ahead of the RBI policy decision may sustain volatility. A close above 55,100 could trigger a relief rebound; otherwise, the index remains vulnerable to renewed selling. MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. It offers tools and resources to help investors make informed decisions based on the CAN SLIM methodology, founded by legendary investor William J. O'Neil. You can access a 10-day free trial by registering on its website. Trade name: William O’Neil India Pvt. Ltd. Sebi Registration No.: INH000015543 Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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