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Indian equities ended the week marginally lower, extending their losing streak to six weeks, as high crude oil prices weighed on sentiment early in the week. A subsequent pullback in oil prices, easing global bond yields after expected rate hikes by central banks, and value buying by domestic institutional investors helped markets recover from mid-week through Friday, limiting the weekly fall. The Nifty 50 fell 0.2% to 23,346.40, while the Sensex declined 0.6% to 74,294.96. WTI crude retreated to around $96 a barrel from a weekly high of $105, as expectations grew that alternative routes could help mitigate supply disruptions in West Asia. The pullback followed indications from Saudi Arabia that it could supply additional crude through Oman amid disruptions to its pipeline network. The oil retreat offered some relief, but weakness in select Tata Group stocks amid the ongoing boardroom rift at Tata Sons continued to weigh on sentiment. Money flowing into the ₹22,569 crore initial public offering (IPO) of National Stock Exchange Ltd and the ₹1,000 crore IPO of Hero Motors also capped market recovery. Consumer stocks lag Consumer durables were the biggest sectoral laggard, falling nearly 3%, while telecom stocks declined 2%. Elevated valuations and an uncertain earnings outlook ahead of the festival season drove the sell-off in consumer durable companies, said Sanjit Singh Paul, smallcase manager and managing partner at Modulor Capital. “A sensitive market will definitely dampen the wealth effect on consumers, who in turn may not spend as much as they would generally in good market conditions,” Paul said. Titan Co. Ltd, a Tata Group stock with a significant weight in the Nifty 50 and consumer durables indices, fell around 2% over the past five days, dragging the broader sector lower, he added. Tata Group stocks have come under pressure amid a deepening rift between the Tata Sons board and Tata Trusts chairman Noel Tata, raising governance concerns. The board voted to extend chairman N. Chandrasekaran’s tenure by five years and pursue the Reserve Bank of India-mandated IPO listing, while Noel Tata has called the reappointment “illegal” and opposed the listing. Paul attributed the weakness in telecom stocks to profit booking rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. Tariff increases in prepaid plans and rising average revenue per user continue to support the sector’s long-term earnings outlook, he added. Healthcare, oil and gas, and fast-moving consumer goods were the week’s top gainers, rising just 0.2–0.4%. Asia bucks rate hikes Taiwan and Japan led global markets this week, gaining 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively, as Asian technology stocks remained resilient despite higher interest rates. The US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan both raised rates by 25 basis points each, taking the BoJ’s policy rate to 1.25%, a 31-year high, and the Fed’s target range to 3.75–4%. Chipmakers and the broader semiconductor supply chain led gains, even as higher rates typically pressure technology-stock valuations. Paul said artificial intelligence demand is overwhelming traditional interest-rate mechanics, with data centres driving demand for high-bandwidth memory, graphics processing units (GPU), foundry capacity and networking equipment concentrated in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Oil in focus Next week, markets will track September’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) print, August infrastructure output, foreign-exchange reserves and bank credit growth for cues on domestic growth and liquidity, experts said. Globally, US industrial production and consumer sentiment, along with developments from President Donald Trump’s meeting with Gulf leaders in New York, will remain in focus, as any diplomatic progress could influence crude oil prices. Even if the West Asia conflict ended immediately, the impact of elevated crude could remain visible until December-quarter earnings, said Karan Aggarwal, co-founder and chief investing officer at Ametra PMS. He noted that the 2022 oil spike had eroded profit margins by 200-300 basis points, warning that a similar shock could trigger a sharp market correction, particularly in mid- and smallcaps.
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