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Stock market prediction on Wednesday, 16 September, 2026: The Indian stock market is likely to witness a muted start on Wednesday amid rise in US yield bonds and elevated crude oil prices. Asian markets opened mixed on Wednesday, while US stock futures fell ahead of US Federal Reserve's policy decision today. “Indian equity markets look set for a cautious start today after Wall Street closed lower for a second consecutive session overnight. Only pockets of AI-linked stocks held up, while surging crude oil prices and a sharp rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which reached its highest level in nearly two decades, weighed on sentiment amid inflation concerns linked to the energy shock,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money. Indian equity benchmarks declined by more than 1% on Tuesday, September 15. The 30-share Sensex fell 778 points, or 1.04%, to close at 74,003.82, while the NSE Nifty 50 dropped 280 points, or 1.19%, to settle at 23,118.60. Broader market indices witnessed sharper losses, with the BSE 150 Midcap index declining 2.17% and the BSE 250 Smallcap index falling 2.40%. “Markets remained volatile on Tuesday and declined by over 1%, extending the prevailing corrective phase. The Nifty, which opened near the 23,600 mark, gradually slipped during the session and settled close to the day’s low at around 23,118. The reversal came as rising crude prices and higher global bond yields overshadowed early strength in IT and select heavyweight stocks," said Ajit Mishra, SVP Research. Religare Broking. Gift Nifty was trading around the 23,214.50 level, down nearly 9.40 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a negative start for the Indian stock market indices. According to Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, the benchmark Sensex witnessed a sharp fall on Tuesday, closing at 74,003.82, down 777.94 points (-1.04%). The index opened at 75,369.63, touched a high of 75,436.44, but failed to sustain the initial strength and declined sharply to an intraday low of 73,994.03. The inability to hold the gap-up opening reflects strong profit booking and continued supply at higher levels. The broader market also remained under pressure amid elevated crude oil prices and global bond yields. “Price action turned decisively weak as the Sensex surrendered the 74,500 mark and maintained a downward trajectory through most of the session. The immediate support is placed at 73,500–74,000, while 74,800–75,000 is likely to act as the key resistance zone. The broader trading range stands at 73,500–75,000, with the index maintaining a sideways-to-bearish bias. A sustained hold above 74,000 could provide some stability, while failure to defend this zone may keep selling pressure elevated,” said Gupta. Meanwhile, on the Nifty 50 outlook, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said that the index witnessed strong selling pressure and closed with a long bearish candle on the daily chart. The index has now reached the swing-low support of June 11, 2026. “Both daily and hourly charts are in the oversold zone, so a technical bounce cannot be ruled out from current levels. However, the overall trend remains bearish, and any recovery should be used as a selling opportunity. Nifty has support at 23,000, while resistance has shifted to 23,350–23,500. A decisive close below 23,000 could extend the downside towards 22,500–22,600, near the weekly 200-SMA,” he added. US stock futures were largely flat on Tuesday evening as investors awaited a key Federal Reserve interest rate decision that could signal the start of a fresh rate-hiking cycle in the coming months. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 56 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures also rose 0.1% each. Markets were pricing in a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at Wednesday’s Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The probability of another quarter-point increase stood at 45% for the October meeting and 30% for December. The Fed’s current target interest rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%. Oil prices declined on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly increased, while investors weighed potential supply disruptions after Saudi Arabia halted oil loadings at its Yanbu port following an attack on its East-West pipeline leading to the Red Sea. Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 0.86%, to $107.82 a barrel at 0028 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also declined 97 cents, or 0.92%, to $104.86 a barrel. Both benchmarks had surged more than $3 in the previous session, settling at their highest levels since May 19 on Tuesday. South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI was largely unchanged, while the small-cap KOSDAQ fell 0.69%. Despite being the world’s best-performing major stock index in the first half of the year, the KOSPI has since declined as much as 44% from its June 19 peak. Japan’s Nikkei share average was largely unchanged on Wednesday even as the broader market moved higher, with investors assessing mixed economic data and positioning ahead of key central bank policy decisions. The benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped 0.03% to 63,462.01 in early trade, putting it on track for a fourth consecutive session of losses. In contrast, the broader Topix rose 0.79% to 4,069.02 after hitting an intraday peak of 4,072.31. Market participants remained cautious ahead of monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve later on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. Both central banks are widely expected to raise interest rates. Taiwan’s stock market opened in green, with TAIEX index trading 0.42% higher at 45,701.49 on 16 September. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions. Vaamanaa covers business and stock market news. Started in 2020, she has been producing news on digital platforms for over 4.5 years now. She writes on markets, commodities, IPOs, and industry. She has worked for news channels like Jagran New Media and Business Insider India. You can reach out to her at vaamanaa.sethi@htdigital.in. Catch all the Business News , Market News , Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates. Oops! Looks like you have exceeded the limit to bookmark the image. 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