Inflation likely peaked for 2026 but will remain sticky, according to prediction markets

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Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think inflation likely reached a peak for the year, though they don't see a sharp move lower anytime soon.
Traders think the September consumer price index, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, will show a 3.6% increase year over year. That's in line with a FactSet consensus estimate.
That would mark an increase from the 3.4% advance seen in August. Yet speculators on Kalshi place just under one-in-three odds that inflation will hit new highs in 2026. Previously, year-over-year inflation peaked at 4.2% in May.
Inflation-related contracts on the platform ask traders if they think that CPI will come in above various levels for the month of September or if it will go above certain levels at any point in 2026. The contracts are resolved using the official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core inflation is predicted to remain steady at 2.4% year over year, also in line with economists' estimates, according to FactSet. However, traders think that core inflation — which excludes food and energy price changes — will remain elevated throughout the rest of 2026.
There's just a 6% chance that core inflation falls below 2.2% this year. Annual core inflation was last below that level before the spike in inflation that began in 2021.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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