Gold rate today under pressure as soaring crude oil price fuels US Fed rate hike buzz | Resistance, support to outlook

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Gold rate today: Amid soaring crude oil prices due to escalating tensions in the US-Iran war, rising US Treasury yields, and a strong US dollar (USD), gold prices today are under pressure. The renewed tension from rising inflation has fueled buzz about a US Fed rate hike at next week's US Fed meeting, scheduled for 15th to 16th September 2026.
In the international market, the COMEX gold price finished around 1.50% lower at $4,408.90 per ounce, whereas the MCX gold rate edged higher last week and ended at ₹1,52,784 per 10 gm, but ended below 20-DEMA on the technical chart.
On triggers that are dragging gold price today, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, “The gold rate today is on edge as another surge in oil prices fed into inflation expectations and pushed markets to sharply raise the odds of a US Fed rate hike at next week’s US Fed meeting. The resulting pressure on precious metals drove gold and silver into their third consecutive weekly declines, although both staged a notable rebound on Friday despite a hotter-than-expected headline inflation reading.”
Pointing towards the major drag for the gold and silver rates today, Ponmudi R of Enrich Money said, “Oil once again dominated the commodity landscape, with WTI crude rising above $104 a barrel, gaining 9.6% over the five sessions and nearly 16% over the past month as US–Iran tension continued to escalate.”
The Enrich Money expert said the US diesel prices also climbed above $6 a gallon for the first time, underscoring the growing inflationary impact of higher energy costs. The sustained rise in crude has increasingly become the key transmission channel linking geopolitical tensions with inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy.
Pointing towards the impact of soaring crude oil prices on the US Fed meeting outcome next week, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “The soaring crude oil price due to the US-Iran tension has renewed the inflation fear. So, the market is expecting a US Fed rate cut in next week's US Fed meeting, scheduled from 15-146 September 2026.” He said expectations for a US Fed rate hike on the CME FedWatch tool rose to roughly 90% following the inflation print.
The pressure for a US Fed rate hike was evident in Thursday’s producer-price report, which showed annual producer inflation accelerating to 5.4%, above the 5.3% forecast, largely reflecting the impact of higher energy costs. The data initially weighed heavily on gold, which fell more than 1% to a one-week low as expectations of a rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting climbed above 70%.
Treasury yields also surged, with the 10-year yield touching 4.975% intraday, its highest level since October 2023, while the two-year yield reached a two-year high near 4.65%. The move was further amplified by a disappointing US Treasury buyback operation that purchased less than its authorised maximum.
On reason for the dip in the COMEX gold rate, but a rise in the MCX gold rate, Ponmudi R of Enrich Money said, “The weakness in the INR provided an additional support factor for domestic precious metals. USD/INR rose sharply during the week as the Indian rupee weakened by around 1.1% to close at 95.54 per dollar, marking its steepest weekly decline in four months.”
The Enrich Money expert said that elevated crude prices, rising global bond yields and continued dollar demand weighed on the Indian currency, while RBI intervention through dollar-rupee swaps helped limit the pace of depreciation. The weaker rupee raises the landed cost of imported bullion, providing some support to MCX gold and silver rates even when international prices remain under pressure.
Expecting an improvement in demand for the precious metals, Darshan Dessai, CEO at Aspect Bullion & Refinery, said, "We see the recent correction as part of the normal market cycle. With the festive and wedding season approaching, we expect physical demand for gold to gradually improve. The recent softening in prices has also renewed consumer interest, particularly from retail and jewellery buyers. We remain cautiously positive on the outlook and believe festive demand could provide further support to the bullion and jewellery market in the coming weeks.”
Ponmudi of Enrich Money believes the weekly RSI for the COMEX gold rate today has eased to 50, hovering near the midline, while the daily RSI has cooled to 47.65, slipping below the midline and reflecting a clear loss of short-term momentum. Immediate resistance is placed in the $4,500–$4,530 zone, followed by the next resistance zone at $4,600–$4,630; a sustained close above $4,600 would be needed to resume the broader uptrend.
“On the downside, immediate support lies in the $4,340–$4,370 zone, with the next support at $4,200–$4,230; a break below $4,200 would deepen the current corrective move,” said Ponmudi, adding, “Reclaiming $4,500 is important to improve momentum.”
The Enrich Money expert said the weekly RSI for the MCX gold rate today is at 53.93, while the daily RSI has slipped to 48.26, reflecting a loss of near-term momentum even as the broader weekly trend stays intact. Immediate resistance is in the ₹1,54,000– ₹1,54,700 zone, followed by the next resistance zone at ₹1,56,300– ₹1,57,000; a sustained close above ₹1,57,000 would revive the recovery attempt.
“On the downside, immediate support lies in the ₹1,50,000– ₹1,50,700 zone, with the next support at ₹1,47,300– ₹1,48,000; a break below ₹1,48,000 would deepen the current pullback. Overall, the metal is consolidating with a cautious undertone, and holding above ₹1,52,000 would keep the broader structure intact,” said Ponmudi of Enrich Money.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational and informational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
Asit Manohar has nearly two decades of experience in the mainstream media. In this period, he has served esteemed media organisations like NDTV Profit, The Economic Times, and Zee Business. He has been working at LiveMint Digital since April 2021. During these two decades of journey in mainstream media, Asit has mainly covered external affairs, markets and personal finance. However, his earliest beats include railways, SME, MSME, and politics (Congress beat). Some of his features on political, economic, and foreign policy are documented in the parliamentary records. <br><br> While pursuing his MA (Mass Communication, Session 2004-06), Asit began his media career as a stringer at All India Radio in Varanasi. At AIR Varanasi, Asit worked with the Gyanvani, Yuvvani and Vividh Bharti teams. After working for nearly one year at AIR Varanasi, he shifted to print journalism and started working as a stringer for the HT Media Ltd, Varanasi. At HT Media Ltd in Varanasi, he covered the BHU beat. <br><br> Asit has also worked with some brokerage houses. He has worked with Religare Broking and India Infoline, where he assisted the research team in developing and executing trade strategies for intraday cash, F&O, and commodities. <br><br> Asit is a Gold Medalist in MA (Mass Communication) from BHU, Varanasi. He did his BSc. (Hons) in Mathematics from Magadh University, Bodh Gaya. Asit was a National Talent Scholarship holder during his senior secondary studies (1988-91).
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