Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today |Highlights: US stocks end higher as strong inflation data cements rate-hike bets

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Business News›Markets›US Stocks›News›Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today |Highlights: US stocks end higher as strong inflation data cements rate-hike bets LIVE BLOG US stocks rise as inflation cements Fed rate-hike bets. Synopsis Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today |Highlights: US stocks ended higher on Friday as stronger August inflation data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. The S&P 500 rose 0.85%, Nasdaq gained 0.94% and Dow added 0.96%. Falling oil prices also supported sentiment, while Dell rallied to a record high. Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today |Highlights: US stocks ended higher on Friday after August inflation data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. The S&P 500 gained 0.85%, Nasdaq rose 0.94% and Dow advanced 0.96%. Rate futures priced nearly 90% odds of a hike, while falling oil prices eased some pressure. Dell hit a record high, and ACV Auctions surged after Copart agreed to buy it for nearly $1.9 billion. Show more 1 New Update S&P 500 gained 64.84 points, or 0.85%, to end at 7,656.54 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 245.85 points, or 0.94%, to 26,327.58. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 502.12 points, or 0.96%, to 52,566.22. Morgan Stanley strategists are advising clients to position for Japanese yen weakness toward 163 per dollar, arguing that the currency's recent recovery was driven by temporary positioning shifts rather than a shift in economic fundamentals. The team noted that concerns over potential asset repatriation by Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund are overblown, clearing the way for investors to rebuild profitable yen-funded carry trades despite recent joint US-Japan intervention signals and hawkish guidance from the Bank of Japan. Consequently, the bank recommends taking a long dollar-yen position with a target of 163 and a stop-loss set at 150, projecting a retreat to the multi-decade lows recorded in late July. US energy firms increased their operating oil and gas rig count by three to 591 in the week to 11 September, marking the first weekly gain in a month and bringing the total count to its highest level since mid-August. According to Baker Hughes, oil rigs rose by one to 450 while gas rigs increased by two to 132, pushing the total count 10% above year-ago levels, led by the Williston Shale's largest weekly gain since 2016. The operational expansion aligns with US Energy Information Administration projections for record crude and natural gas output in 2026, driven by higher West Texas Intermediate prices amid Middle East supply disruptions and surge demand for power-intensive data centers and liquefied natural gas exports. Citi on Friday reiterated its short-term copper price forecast of $15,000 per metric ton, maintaining that robust long-term demand drivers and structural supply constraints through 2027 will outweigh risks from high fund positioning and US tariff doubts. While London Metal Exchange three-month copper traded flat at $14,238 a ton, the bank indicated it does not expect official US policy clarity regarding tariffs on copper cathodes until after November's midterm elections. Citi advised clients that any near-term pullbacks triggered by profit-taking or macroeconomic policy hesitation should be viewed as temporary corrections and prime buying opportunities to build long exposure across the metal complex. The US federal budget deficit reached $1.97 trillion through the first 11 months of fiscal year 2026, driven by rising Treasury yields, mounting entitlement spending, and recent tariff refunds. Treasury Department data revealed that total outlays rose to $6.81 trillion against $4.85 trillion in revenue, pushing net interest payments on national debt to $1 trillion for the period, a total that now outpaces defense spending. With average rates on Treasury debt continuing to climb and the national debt exceeding $40 trillion, escalating borrowing costs and prospective fiscal packages continue to compound long-term deficit concerns ahead of September's final budget tally. Redemption pressure in private credit may be starting to ease, with BlackRock's flagship fund receiving fewer withdrawal requests in the third quarter than in the previous three months. The development offers an early sign that investor concerns around the asset class could be moderating after a year of heavy withdrawal demand. Read more US consumer prices accelerated by 0.4% in August while core inflation posted its largest monthly increase since April at 0.3%, driving financial markets to price in an 87% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its 15-16 September policy meeting. Powered by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices and broader cost increases across airfares, hotels, and mobile phone services, headline annual inflation held at 3.4%, well above the central bank's 2% target. With energy disruptions from the ongoing war with Iran threatening to spill over into wider goods and services, real average hourly earnings contracted for a fifth straight month, further depressing consumer sentiment and compounding cost-of-living challenges for the Trump administration ahead of the November midterm elections. At the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, party leaders projected confidence in President Donald Trump’s economic legacy, yet latent anxieties over voter dissatisfaction and persistent inflation shadowed the event ahead of the November elections. Despite Republican claims of economic resilience, voter sentiment has dipped significantly as surging gas and record-high diesel costs driven by the war with Iran, alongside rising mortgage rates and expected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, erode household budgets. In response to polling indicating a record-low 33% approval rating for his job performance and widespread affordability concerns, Trump introduced a proposed $1.2 trillion "$5,000 Trump dividend" package for American adults contingent on GOP congressional control, implicitly acknowledging the cost-of-living pressures facing voters while urging patience for his long-term economic policies to take full effect. - Baker Hughes The US bond market closed out a punishing week with 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 4.93% after a hotter-than-expected August core inflation reading of 0.3% reinforced expectations for monetary tightening. Investors now price in a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at next week's policy meeting, with two quarter-point hikes fully anticipated by year-end to counteract persistent inflation driven by surging energy costs and Middle East tensions. While policy-sensitive short-term yields rose as high as 4.66% before easing, longer-dated Treasuries saw modest buying interest, reflecting market expectations that proactive central bank tightening under Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will help anchor long-term price stability despite ongoing headwinds from expanding national debt. - Said Haidar, founder of Haidar Capital Management The White House is evaluating the use of the Defense Production Act to expand domestic oil refining capacity as the ongoing conflict with Iran drives fuel prices higher and exposes vulnerabilities in energy supply chains. Following discussions between President Donald Trump and major refining executives, federal officials are looking at providing financial incentives and regulatory relief to help boost plant efficiency and expand existing facilities, given that US refineries are currently operating near maximum levels at 98% utilization. With retail diesel topping $6 a gallon and gasoline costs stoking voter frustration ahead of November's midterm elections, the administration is seeking to fast-track domestic refining growth while simultaneously securing foreign crude streams from Venezuela to ease broader affordability pressures. Anthropic PBC released a detailed threat intelligence report revealing that foreign actors from Iran, Russia, China, and Yemen attempted to misuse its Claude AI model for military and espionage projects. Highlighted cases include Russian users designing software for kamikaze drone swarms, Houthi-aligned groups in Yemen building missile navigation systems, state-backed entities conducting mass surveillance in Mali, and intelligence-linked hackers automating cyber operations and phishing attacks. Anthropic confirmed it identified and disrupted all highlighted operations, emphasizing that none involved its most advanced models, though the disclosures come amidst mounting scrutiny over AI safety safeguards and ongoing friction between the developer and the US Department of Defense over restrictions on military deployments. BlackRock saw redemption requests for its flagship $23.1 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund decline to 11.5% in the third quarter from 13.3% in the previous period, signaling that redemption pressures across the private credit sector may be starting to stabilize. The non-traded fund will execute its customary 5% share buyback threshold, representing about $600 million in tender offers, as wealth-channel investors begin clearing backlogs built up amid earlier concerns over lending standards and software sector exposure. With smaller BlackRock vehicles and peers like TPG Twin Brook also reporting lower withdrawal requests, analysts expect direct lending sentiment to improve and repurchase trajectories across business development companies to decelerate. US farmers are facing sharp margin pressure as record diesel prices, now averaging $6.05 a gallon, coincide with the critical autumn harvest for major commodities like soybeans and corn. Driven 60% higher since the outbreak of the war with Iran in late February, fuel costs are compounding an already difficult financial year for cash-strapped agricultural operations that have wrestled with elevated fertilizer, seed, and machinery expenses. Because diesel is indispensable for operating heavy combines, tractors, and transport trucks to move grain from field to market, the price spike is directly eroding farm profitability and forcing some producers to delay non-essential field work. Copper prices steadied around $14,238 a metric ton on Friday but remained on track for a 1.2% weekly decline, snapping a 10-week winning streak following news that the White House has yet to decide on imposing tariffs on the metal. The report triggered a 3.6% pullback from record highs in the prior session as traders scrambled to reduce risk, pushing the London Metal Exchange three-month copper spread into contango for the first time in months to reflect easing immediate supply concerns. Despite the temporary pause in momentum and broader weakness across industrial metals from rising borrowing costs, analysts note that underlying fundamentals remain supported by tight physical inventories, with Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks dropping to their lowest levels since January 2024. ACV Auctions shares surged 44% following an agreement by online vehicle auction platform Copart to acquire the company in a transaction valued at nearly $1.9 billion. - Andre Bakhos, managing member at Ingenium Analytics Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said on Friday that oil buffers that limited crude price increases earlier in the Iran war have been depleted, and the conflict could lift prices further over the next few months. Since the war began in late February, countries have released some crude stockpiles to the market, and the U.S. also lifted restrictions on oil stored on ships floating at sea from countries under sanctions. Those buffers have now been "played out," Wirth said while speaking at a University of Texas at Austin energy conference. "It's harder to envision a scenario where prices soften and quickly," he said. "I think the risks remain to the upside over the next few months." The average price of diesel in the U.S. hit $6 per gallon for the first time on Thursday, as the Iran war, combined with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, squeezed supply. Brent crude futures remain on track for a weekly gain of 8%. - Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management According to Bloomberg, Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie warned that average US gasoline prices face an extremely high probability of surpassing $5 a gallon prior to November's midterm elections, driven by compounding global energy shortages and currency debasement. Speaking on Bloomberg Television, the Real Macro chief executive noted that supply tightness has expanded from refined products into crude oil, pushing the entire commodity complex higher as refineries exhaust operational flexibility and Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases remain unlikely to resume. With retail diesel potentially reaching $7 to $9 a gallon and agricultural commodities like soybeans, wheat, and corn already signaling an escalating food crisis, Currie urged investors to allocate toward hard assets amid unprecedented structural scarcity across the sector. The US dollar fluctuated on Friday, reversing an initial rally as a pull-back in oil prices offset stronger-than-expected August inflation data that reinforced bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index briefly touched a one-week high after monthly core consumer prices rose 0.3%, but later erased gains to trade 0.1% lower as softer crude prices capped inflation fears. The greenback was further constrained by a rally in the Japanese yen, which surged as much as 0.8% following hawkish signals from Bank of Japan policymakers and verbal intervention from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, while institutional investors continued to unwind long dollar positions ahead of upcoming central bank decisions. Back-to-back hotter-than-expected inflation readings may disappoint the majority of U.S. central bankers who had been counting on price pressures easing on their own, setting the table for an interest-rate hike at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week and potentially more to follow. Read more Bond traders have sharply increased bets on Federal Reserve monetary tightening following hotter-than-expected August core inflation data, fully pricing in two quarter-point rate hikes by the end of the year. Swaps data indicates a 90% probability of an initial rate increase at next week's policy meeting, as persistent energy cost shocks from the Middle East conflict continue to keep price growth well above the central bank's 2% target. The short end of the Treasury yield curve spiked on the print, with two-year yields reaching 4.66% before stabilizing, while longer-dated bonds rallied as markets anticipate that tighter central bank action will eventually curb long-term inflation and slow economic growth. BMO Capital Markets has initiated coverage of Lululemon Athletica Inc. with an underperform rating and a $70 price target, warning that the retailer faces a protracted turnaround as consumer interest in athleisure wanes. Analysts highlight that the Vancouver-based company is ceding market share to fast-growing rivals like Alo and Vuori, leading to deteriorating sales across key markets in China and the Americas. With the stock already down more than 80% from its December 2023 record high, BMO projects fiscal 2027 earnings per share well below Wall Street consensus, anticipating that incoming chief executive officer Heidi O'Neill will need to implement aggressive price cuts and merchandise liquidations to stem revenue declines. A higher-than-expected August core Consumer Price Index reading of 0.3% month-on-month has firmly cemented expectations for a quarter-point Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its upcoming 15-16 September policy meeting. Driven by surging energy prices amid ongoing Middle East hostilities and sticky gains across goods and services, overall inflation sits at 3.4% annually, continuing a five-and-a-half-year streak above the central bank's 2% target. Financial markets have rapidly adjusted, with short-term futures now pricing in an 85% probability of a rate increase as economists warn that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and fellow policymakers may need to execute multiple hikes to re-establish price stability and prevent high inflation expectations from taking root. US consumer prices accelerated by 0.4% from July to August, driven by a 3.9% monthly jump in gasoline costs linked to ongoing Middle East conflicts. The Consumer Price Index advanced 3.4% on an annual basis, while monthly core inflation reached its highest level since April at 0.3%, signaling that underlying price pressures remain stubbornly broad-based across airfares, hotels, and auto repairs. The hotter-than-expected reading has pushed market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its 16 September meeting above 80%, as central bank officials face growing pressure to tighten monetary policy despite the potential for higher borrowing costs on consumers and businesses. US benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back from an intraday high of 4.9915% as traders digested August inflation data that firmly boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. The Consumer Price Index accelerated by 0.4% month-on-month, driven by rebounding gasoline costs, prompting markets to price in an 82.5% chance of a rate increase at the Fed's 16 September policy meeting. While short-term two-year yields pushed higher to reflect tightening bets, longer-dated yields retreated from near-5% multiyear peaks as fixed-income investors weighed the prospect that aggressive central bank action would eventually cool broader economic activity and rein in inflation. Colgate-Palmolive is exploring the divestiture of select mass-market personal care brands, including Softsoap, Irish Spring, and Speed Stick, in a deal that could fetch over $1 billion. The New York-based consumer products group is working with Goldman Sachs to streamline its portfolio and concentrate resources on core growth areas, particularly its dominant oral care segment, amid intensifying North American competition and input cost pressures. The potential sale aligns with a broader trend among global consumer goods conglomerates retooling their brand lineups through targeted asset sales to improve profitability and navigate macroeconomic headwinds. Global supertanker freight rates jumped to record highs this week following an escalation in shipping attacks between US and Iranian forces, further disrupting critical Middle East supply routes. Rates for very large crude carriers travelling from the Gulf of Oman to China reached nearly $11.50 per barrel on a Worldscale basis, driven by higher operational risks, vessel shortages, and new security threats near the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The sharp surge in maritime transport costs has already spilled over to alternative global routes, including West Africa to Asia, adding fresh pressure to energy supply chains and threatening to amplify broader global inflationary pressures. Gold prices rose nearly 2% toward $4,400 an ounce on Friday, staging a swift recovery after an initial drop triggered by hotter-than-expected US consumer price data. The inflation print prompted swap traders to ramp up expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting to nearly 90%, causing brief volatility across two-year Treasuries and the dollar. Despite the prospect of higher interest rates, which typically weigh on non-yielding assets, bullion found support from investors rebuilding positions post-release alongside a pause in the recent oil rally, reinforcing gold's appeal amid ongoing Middle East geopolitics and persistent inflation risks. Read more Oracle's shares gained 3% in early trading on Friday after a $26 billion jump in revenue backlog eased some concerns around its massive debt-driven spending spree, but analysts said the company's cash flow recovery is still a long way off. Read more The main U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Friday, putting them on track to end a rough week on a positive note even as data showed consumer prices accelerated in August. Read more U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August as the cost of gasoline rebounded after two straight monthly declines, bolstering financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next week. Read more Average U.S. diesel prices surged past $6.05 a gallon on Friday, hitting record levels as ongoing military conflict with Iran and refining disruptions in Russia severely bottleneck global crude and fuel supplies. The escalation has pushed crude oil past $100 a barrel, driving up transportation costs across freight and logistics networks, with shipping surcharges and grocery price hikes on perishable goods already hitting consumers. With Middle East crude production down following attacks on Saudi energy facilities and S&P Global warning output may not recover before late 2027, sustained energy costs threaten to further exacerbate broader inflationary pressures across the global economy. Read more Investors are now focused on the Consumer Price Index report after Thursday's hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index reading did little to ease inflation concerns. The S&P 500 was heading for its biggest weekly decline since June through Thursday's close, while the Dow was on track for its steepest weekly fall since March. Elsewhere, ACV Auctions surged about 44% after Copart agreed to acquire the company in a deal worth nearly $1.9 billion. The market remained sensitive to interest-rate expectations, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.9424%, despite a slight decline during the session. The yield remained near its highest level since 2023. Higher Treasury yields can reduce the relative appeal of equities, adding another challenge for stocks already dealing with geopolitical risks and concerns over persistent inflation. Brent crude futures fell more than 3%, but remained above $103 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 3.5% and traded close to $100. The recent rise in energy prices has increased concerns about inflation, particularly as tensions in the Middle East continue to threaten energy supplies. The US national average diesel price also crossed $6 a gallon for the first time. Oracle shares jumped nearly 7% in premarket trading after the software company reported quarterly results that exceeded estimates. The performance offered investors reassurance that its heavy investments in artificial intelligence are beginning to generate returns. Nvidia also gained 0.8%. Meanwhile, Adobe shares fell more than 4% after its fourth-quarter revenue forecast midpoint came in below expectations. US stock index futures recovered on Friday as oil prices cooled, giving investors some relief after a weak week for equities. Dow E-minis rose 0.55%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.53% and 0.6%, respectively. The gains came as markets looked ahead to the US consumer inflation report, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path.