Midcap stocks ignore Middle East war, AI worries to jump up to 85% in 2026. More rally or sharp correction ahead?
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While the Nifty 50 index declined more than 7% in the first six months of 2026, the Nifty Midcap 150 index has gained 2.5% in the same period of time. Hitachi Energy India, Thermax, Solar Industries, CG Power, Bank of Maharashtra, Bharat Forge and BSE shares were among the top gainers, jumping up to 85% in the first six months of 2026. Gland Pharma, Oracle Financial Services, Bandhan Bank, Sona BLW, Vodafone Idea, Polycab India, Delhivery, SAIL and Yes Bank were also among the notable midcap names that sharply increased their investors’ wealth despite the overall market downtrend in 2026 so far. FII ignorance helping midcaps The divergence between Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty 50 in 2026 is not a market anomaly; it is a structural story finally being priced correctly, said Vaqarjaved Khan, Senior Fundamental Analyst at Angel One. He highlighted that FII selling hit largecaps almost exclusively. "The real economy themes of this decade, including defence indigenisation, capital goods, electronics manufacturing, auto ancillaries, live in the midcap index, not the Nifty 50,” the analyst noted.Tanvi Kanchan, Associate Director at Anand Rathi Share & Stock Brokers, also highlighted that FII selling hits largecaps almost exclusively, while the Nifty 50's most influential names, including Reliance Industries, TCS, HDFC Bank and others absorb that outflow disproportionately. “Midcaps, by contrast, are primarily owned and traded by domestic investors, and domestic flows have been remarkably resilient. Domestic equity mutual fund inflows climbed to $500 billion in March 2026, the highest in eight months, while SIP contributions stood at $321 billion per month. Additionally, the National Pension Scheme contributed nearly $1.7 billion every month into equities during the first quarter of 2026,” Kanchan noted. Also read: Dalal Street bets on a strong July as macro risks begin to fade Earnings story Beyond flows, there is an earnings story that has held up, Kanchan from Anand Rathi further said. During the January-March quarter of FY26 (Q4 FY26), 44% of Nifty Midcap 150 companies delivered over 15% revenue growth, with only 9% in de-growth, a notably better picture than largecaps navigating global headwinds, or smallcaps, where 20% reported negative growth, she said.Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, also noted that midcap companies have reported better earnings than many largecap peers, especially in sectors such as capital goods, defence, industrials, financial services, and manufacturing, supported by government infrastructure spending, rising private capex, and the Make in India initiative. In addition, steady domestic institutional inflows through SIPs have cushioned the segment from foreign selling. The thematic alignment also matters - sectors such as industrials, defence, power, infrastructure, telecom, and clean energy have led this rally, and these are predominantly midcap stories, not Nifty 50 stories, Kanchan says. “Concerns persist that the rally is partially valuation-driven and vulnerable to geopolitical risks and domestic flow shifts. The market has entered a more earnings-driven phase; companies that cannot back up their valuations with actual delivery will face corrections,” she added. Also read: Smallcaps soar up to 200% in 2026. Will the mammoth rally continue? What lies ahead? The analyst listed three things to watch closely for the second half of FY27. These include "crude oil, a sustained move above $100/bbl would squeeze India's current account and midcap industrial margins faster than most models account for. SIP continuity: the entire outperformance thesis rests on domestic flows holding; if retail sentiment cracks and redemptions pick up, the structure that protected midcaps becomes the vulnerability. And Q1 FY27 earnings in July - that's the first real read on whether midcap growth has genuinely held through the geopolitical noise of early 2026,” said Tanvi Kanchan.Looking ahead, the medium-term outlook remains positive, backed by healthy earnings and domestic liquidity, says Mishra from Religare Broking. He, however, cautioned that the valuations have become richer in parts of the midcap universe, making stock selection and earnings quality increasingly important for sustained outperformance. According to Vaqarjaved Khan from Angel One, domestic-driven, earnings-backed midcaps structurally remain the most compelling allocation in Indian equities today. Also read: 12 midcap stocks tanked up to 55% in just one year. Are you holding any? (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
document fetched 2026-07-06 10:05