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Tim’s view The balance of power in Ukraine’s energy war is shifting. In Washington, bipartisan blowback is mounting against the Trump administration’s dangling of lucrative energy prizes for the Kremlin. Senate Democrats issued a stern warning on Monday that they plan to investigate any US entity that imports Russian diesel if they regain their majority after next week’s elections. Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell piled on, charging in a Wall Street Journal column that Trump’s handling of Russian President Vladimir Putin is “factually wrong, strategically naive, and morally bankrupt.” The EU is sticking to its guns on plans to end Russian gas imports next year. The days in which Moscow will be able to leverage its oil and gas to squeeze concessions from the West are rapidly shrinking. Scrutiny is also mounting of Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which continued last night; a UN commission concluded on Monday that these attacks constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. As temperatures dwindle, Ukraine’s surprising ability to keep its grid from total collapse, plus its ongoing deep-strike drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, has allowed Kyiv to effectively achieve an “energy stalemate,” if not a ceasefire, scholars at Columbia University and the Carnegie Endowment wrote in Foreign Affairs. Still, with more attacks ahead, Kyiv has failed to take some basic steps that would leave it better prepared this winter, a report from the research and advocacy group Ukraine Facility Platform concluded, mainly by putting off regulatory reforms that could entice more private investment into decentralized, grid-connected power generation. “The government is still preparing for last year’s heating season,” UFP analyst Mariia Tsaturian, a former official at the state grid operator, told me. Nearly a gigawatt of replacement energy hardware from Western donors has also not yet been set up, she said. Escalation from both sides is forthcoming, which means more costs and suffering for civilians. So far, this cycle of energy destruction and adaptation has served more to prolong the war than to push either side to the negotiating table. The US still has the power to tip the balance; the next few weeks after the midterm elections should give a clearer sense of where that leverage is headed. Notable - European officials expect only modest gains in the US’s position towards the Russia-Ukraine war, such as a restoration of satellite services and an acceleration of the delivery of air defense missiles, if the Democrats win the midterms.
document fetched 2026-10-28 02:52 · canonical https://semafor.com/article/10/27/2026/kyiv-misses-chances-for-upper-hand-in-energy-war