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Brazil’s energy path could change less than environmentalists expect if right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s presidential election. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration has celebrated new oil discovery and exploration efforts, marking a difference from some regional leftist allies. Lawmakers from the candidates’ respective parties also found much agreement when debating a critical minerals law that centers domestic value addition earlier this year. One area where the pair may diverge, however, is on the Amazon: Brazilian economist Monica de Bolle said the enforcement of existing environmental laws could weaken under Bolsonaro, whose father presided over the loss of more than 11 million acres of rainforest. A nearly $3 billion takeover of a Brazilian rare earth mining firm by USA Rare Earths—which the US government holds a stake in— also hangs in the balance: Lula opposed it, and will likely try to use a new law to change the terms of the deal if he remains in office, according to de Bolle.
document fetched 2026-10-24 11:23 · canonical https://semafor.com/article/10/22/2026/brazils-energy-course-may-hold-after-election-but-amazon-at-risk