IDBI Bank shares delivered almost no returns in 20 years. Can Fairfax deal finally turn stock around? Experts weigh in

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IDBI Bank shares have delivered little price appreciation over the past two decades, with the stock trading at an intraday high of ₹84.70 on 19 October 2026, compared with ₹85.20 on 30 October 2006. Despite a sharp rally following developments around the bank’s proposed privatisation, the stock remains close to its level 20 years ago.
The stock’s performance has been mixed across shorter periods as well. IDBI Bank shares have declined 20.67% year-to-date and 10.33% over the past year. They have gained 9.63% over six months, but are down 5.42% over three months. Over a five-year period, the stock has risen 48.82%, while its 10-year gain stands at 13.05%, according to the data provided.
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said IDBI Bank has witnessed heightened volatility following the recent rally triggered by developments surrounding its proposed privatisation.
The stock surged sharply before witnessing profit-booking, indicating near-term volatility and selling pressure at higher levels, Shah said.
Technically, the ₹81 zone is an important support area, while ₹85–86 is the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above ₹86 could improve the near-term outlook and open the possibility of a recovery towards ₹89–90.
However, a decisive breakdown below ₹81 could weaken the price structure and lead to further downside towards ₹79–80. Overall, the stock is likely to remain volatile, and a sustained breakout above resistance would be important to confirm renewed upward momentum, Shah said.
Ruchit Jain, Head of Equity Technical Research, Wealth Management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said the stock has been in a prolonged consolidation phase. He identified ₹100 as the immediate resistance level that the stock needs to surpass to trigger a sustained upward move.
Traders should adopt a wait-and-watch approach until IDBI Bank shares move above this hurdle again, Jain said.
The government has said the strategic sale of IDBI Bank is expected to be completed by the end of FY27, subject to clearance from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to reports.
On Wednesday, the government approved the sale of a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank to Canada’s Fairfax Financial Holdings for around ₹53,000 crore, or approximately $5.5 billion. The transaction would mark a major milestone in India’s long-delayed banking privatisation drive, according to reports.
Fairfax, led by Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa, will acquire the government’s 30.48% stake for around ₹26,620 crore and LIC’s 30.24% stake for approximately ₹26,440 crore. The agreed price of ₹81 per share is above the benchmark fair value of ₹75.99 determined by two independent valuation agencies.
Arunish Chawla, Secretary of the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM), said Fairfax would submit its technical papers to the RBI and provide the information required to meet regulatory and compliance requirements. Once the RBI clears the buyer, the share purchase agreement will be signed, paving the way for completion before the end of the current financial year, according to reports.
The strategic sale process began in 2022 but faced a setback earlier this year after initial bids fell below the government’s reserve price, according to reports.
Saurabh Jain, Head of Fundamental Research at SMC Global Securities, said IDBI Bank’s prolonged underperformance can be attributed to its legacy of high non-performing assets (NPAs), structural inefficiencies and extended transitions under government ownership.
He said privatisation could act as a significant catalyst by improving operational agility and corporate governance, while enabling the bank to focus more aggressively on retail and corporate lending. The strategic stake sale by the government and LIC could also reduce bureaucratic constraints, bring in strategic expertise and improve operational efficiency and profitability.
However, Jain cautioned that sustained gains would depend on the final transaction valuation, regulatory clearances, including the RBI’s fit-and-proper assessment, and the incoming promoter’s execution capabilities. While privatisation-related developments could trigger short-term rallies, long-term wealth creation would ultimately hinge on improvements in asset quality, core earnings and the bank’s competitive positioning.
Gaurav Arora, Head of Research at SAHI, said IDBI Bank’s privatisation was a key structural catalyst for long-term value creation, but at around ₹84, the market appeared to have priced in part of the anticipated upside. With Fairfax’s acquisition price at ₹81 per share, minority investors were effectively paying a premium to the control transaction, making entry valuation an important consideration.
Arora said the bank’s underlying fundamentals remained encouraging, with Q2 FY27 profit rising 14% year-on-year after adjusting for the previous year’s one-off NSDL-related gain. Asset quality was also strong, with net NPAs at 0.17% and provision coverage close to 99%.
However, sustaining profitability would be critical, as fluctuations in net interest margins and the potential normalisation of credit costs could constrain future returns. The bigger opportunity under Fairfax’s ownership lies in deploying the bank’s substantial capital base more efficiently, potentially improving return on equity from around 14% to 16–17% and supporting a gradual re-rating towards private-sector banking valuations, he said.
Arora also cautioned investors about a potential share-supply overhang from the government’s residual stake, LIC’s holding and Fairfax’s eventual stake dilution. Other factors to watch include voting-right restrictions, the CSB Bank integration decision, execution costs and pending regulatory approvals.
Overall, Arora said IDBI Bank offered a credible long-term transformation opportunity, but its investment case would depend on earnings delivery and disciplined capital deployment rather than privatisation alone. At current valuations, investors should be selective about their entry price instead of chasing the stock purely on the privatisation narrative.
A sustained re-rating of IDBI Bank will depend on faster earnings growth and improved earnings quality.
Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, said a re-rating of IDBI Bank would depend on an acceleration in earnings growth and an improvement in earnings quality.
He added that a potential merger between CSB Bank and IDBI Bank would require the market to assess both the benefits and the challenges associated with integration. Overall, a meaningful re-rating could still be four to eight quarters away, following the completion of merger formalities and receipt of the necessary regulatory approvals, Agrawal said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Dhanya Nagasundaram works as a Content Producer at LiveMint, specializing in news related to financial markets, stocks, and business. With over eight years of experience in journalism and content creation, she has honed her skills in data-driven reporting and market analysis. Her focus is on monitoring stock trends, initial public offerings (IPOs), corporate news, policy shifts, and larger economic trends that affect investors and market players. <br><br> At LiveMint, Dhanya consistently writes and produces articles that make complex financial topics accessible to readers. She keeps a close eye on equity markets, commodities, and macroeconomic indicators, assisting audiences in comprehending how global and domestic events influence investment perspectives. Her stories frequently underscore emerging trends within sectors, the IPO market, company earnings results, and market strategies pertinent to both retail and institutional investors. <br><br> Before her tenure at LiveMint, Dhanya accumulated a wealth of professional experience at various companies, including MintGenie, Informist, Cogenics, Chary Publications, KPMG, and the Royal Bank of Scotland. These positions allowed her to establish a solid foundation in financial research, reporting, and content creation. <br><br> Throughout her career, she has explored numerous subjects such as trading strategies, commodities, IPOs, wealth generation, corporate profits, and macroeconomic indicators. Her background in both financial journalism and corporate settings has given her the ability to tackle stories with analytical rigor while ensuring clarity for her audience. Through her contributions, Dhanya strives to deliver insightful, trustworthy, and investor-centric financial content.
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