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President Donald Trump is asking voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. That might backfire. New results from The POLITICO Poll show that Democratic midterm voters are more motivated to oppose the president than Republican voters are to support him. Many Republican voters also aren’t looking for blind loyalty to Trump in the midterms: Half say they’d rather their local candidate aim to win, even if it means speaking out against the president. It’s not uncommon for voters in the party out of power to be more motivated in a midterm year. But the lopsided findings are an ominous sign for Trump, who has fundamentally reshaped the GOP over the past decade and has once again staked his brand — and political capital — on delivering wins for Republicans in November. With less than two weeks before the election, the poll suggests Republicans are pragmatic, and care more about preventing a blue wave than standing by Trump. And in a year when voter frustration over high pricesappears poised to play a major role, that distinction could prove consequential. The poll, conducted by London-based firm PF Global, reveals the extent to which frustration with Trump is driving Democrats: Nearly half of Democratic midterm voters say they will be voting “mainly to oppose President Trump,” compared to just 38% of Republican voters who say they will be voting mainly to show support for Trump. Instead, a plurality of Republican midterm voters — 48% — say their main motivation when casting a vote is to show support for a local candidate. Only 37% of Democratic voters agree. “[Trump is] 100% motivating Democrats more than Republicans,” said Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist. “That may have been the case regardless, but it’s even more true with words like ‘diesel’ and ‘Iran’ now a part of everyday political discussion.” Half of Republicans think candidates have a better chance of winning if they align themselves with Trump rather than breaking from him, compared to just 30% who believe candidates would have a better chance of winning if they break away. But half of Republicans also accept their candidates speaking out against the president if that’s what they need to do to win their own election. That’s compared with 37% who say candidates should remain loyal to the president and support his agenda, even if it means risking a loss. On top of that, majorities of Republican voters say Trump himself should give candidates some room to break with him on specific policy issues to win elections. If it helps GOP candidates’ chances of winning, they said, the president should allow for disagreement on the speed of AI development, the cost of living, and whether the war in Iran was a good decision. That holds true for pluralities or even majorities of Trump 2024 voters who self-identify as part of the “MAGA” movement across each policy area, suggesting that even his most loyal voters want the president to let candidates distance themselves if it can help them win. “President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle. RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said "POLITICO didn't need to conduct a poll to know that Democrats are motivated by their hatred for President Trump and Republicans.” She added that the GOP is "running on actual accomplishments like cutting taxes and securing the border," while saying Democrats have made "investigations, obstruction, and impeachment" their campaign platform. Still, the tension is playing out in real time as Republican candidates locked in competitive races walk a tightrope between maintaining Trump’s support — and that of his MAGA base — without alienating critical moderate and independent voters. They’re especially under pressure as Trump hits the campaign trail in battlegrounds and red states, with several candidates having to quietly make calculations whether it will hurt them politically to appear next to him. “I think Republicans ... are stuck choosing which finger to cut off,” said a national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape. "There is no good answer." In Iowa, where voter frustration over some of Trump’s marquee policies, including tariffs and rising costs stemming from the Iran war, has mounted, Republican candidates have sought to create some distance from the president. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, has said the war needs to be “brought to a successful and immediate end.” She also skipped a rally Vice President JD Vance held in the state last month. Several other GOP candidates have also skipped Trump rallies in their home states, and many have grown increasingly wary of mentioning Trump in ads, including in red states that over the last few months have suddenly started to look competitive. In battleground Georgia, GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson has carefully navigated his relationship with Trump, avoiding public breaks with the president on policy but still limiting direct references to him in campaign ads and on the debate stage. “I don’t know that Trump coming [to Georgia] helps Republicans more so than it excites Democrats, especially in a wave election year,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County GOP chair who is supporting Jackson. That leaves Republican candidates in a tricky position: Their voters are willing to accept breaking from Trump if victory is on the line, but voters — and candidates — won’t know what will cost them their race until it's too late. "There's no reason to gratuitously attack the White House and make an enemy,” the national GOP operative said. “But the end game here is to get reelected, and if they have to get reelected, but the president's annoyed at them for a period of time, they'll get over it.” While Republican candidates balance loyalty to Trump with the possibility of breaking away on certain issues, Democratic midterm voters remain highly motivated to vote against Trump’s agenda. Even Trump’s endorsement of a Republican candidate seems to influence Democrats more than Republicans: Roughly 70% of Democratic midterm voters say his endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate, compared to 55% of Republican midterm voters who say the endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate. “The midterm elections are about anger management and failed expectations,” said North Carolina based GOP strategist Paul Shumaker. “A lot of Republicans and swing voters feel like their expectations have not been met in helping address their economic concerns.” Alec Hernández and Alisa Vasquez contributed to this story.
document fetched 2026-10-24 02:56 · canonical https://politico.com/news/2026/10/23/poll-trump-midterms-gop-loyalty-01133479