DeepSeek
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market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
- 4%Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?manifold$58.1Kresolved NO
recent signals
DeepSeek, the Chinese AI model developer, is experiencing rapid revenue growth and attracting massive investor...
DeepSeek, the Chinese AI model developer, is experiencing rapid revenue growth and attracting massive investor interest, signaling strong demand for its open-source AI models and implying increased compute needs.
DeepSeek, the Chinese AI startup behind the open-source DeepSeek-V3 and R1 models, has initiated an in-house AI chip...
DeepSeek, the Chinese AI startup behind the open-source DeepSeek-V3 and R1 models, has initiated an in-house AI chip project focused on inference workloads, as reported by Reuters and corroborated by multiple outlets.
DeepSeek has released a preview of its V4 model, claiming world-class inference performance and significantly improved...
DeepSeek has released a preview of its V4 model, claiming world-class inference performance and significantly improved agent capabilities, as stated on their official website source.
A Manifold prediction market (as of June 28, 2026) indicates only a 4.01% probability that DeepSeek lied about the GPU...
A Manifold prediction market (as of June 28, 2026) indicates only a 4.01% probability that DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used in training V3.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used in training V3.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used in training V3.
A Show HN post on Hacker News claims that DeepSeek Flash has "inverted the economics of agent products," suggesting a...
A Show HN post on Hacker News claims that DeepSeek Flash has "inverted the economics of agent products," suggesting a dramatic cost reduction in deploying AI agents using DeepSeek's model.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train its v3...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train its v3 model.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source: is currently betting on whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source: is currently betting on whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train its V3 model.
On June 26, 2026, a prediction market on Manifold Markets asked whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used...
On June 26, 2026, a prediction market on Manifold Markets asked whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used in training its v3 model.
A Manifold market (source) as of 2026-06-25 shows only 4.01% probability that DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute...
A Manifold market (source) as of 2026-06-25 shows only 4.01% probability that DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train v3.
A prediction market on Manifold ( asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used in training v3.
A prediction market on Manifold ( asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used in training v3.
A prediction market on Manifold shows a low probability (4.01% YES) that DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget...
A prediction market on Manifold shows a low probability (4.01% YES) that DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train v3.
A prediction market on Manifold, 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?',...
A prediction market on Manifold, 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?', currently shows only a 4.01% probability of 'YES' as of June 24, 2026.
A Reddit user reported that DeepSeek V4 relies on custom GPU kernels designed for datacenter Blackwell (SM100), causing...
A Reddit user reported that DeepSeek V4 relies on custom GPU kernels designed for datacenter Blackwell (SM100), causing it to fall back to dense attention or CPU execution on consumer RTX PRO 6000 GPUs, resulting in very low token throughput (14 t/s) at large context (source:...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets, as of June 24, 2026, shows a 4.01% consensus that DeepSeek lied about the GPU...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets, as of June 24, 2026, shows a 4.01% consensus that DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train its v3 model.
A Manifold Markets question asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train its v3 model.
A Manifold Markets question asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train its v3 model.
A Manifold Markets prediction market asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train v3.
A Manifold Markets prediction market asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train v3.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train v3, with...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train v3, with only 4.01% probability assigned to 'Yes' as of June 23, 2026.
A Manifold Markets question asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train v3, with the...
A Manifold Markets question asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train v3, with the consensus as of June 22, 2026 showing only a 4.01% probability of yes (source).
Tencent has started testing a new AI assistant in WeChat using DeepSeek models, signaling a design win for DeepSeek in...
Tencent has started testing a new AI assistant in WeChat using DeepSeek models, signaling a design win for DeepSeek in China's competitive AI landscape (Bloomberg).