Should I build this?

Nikon's new CEO Yasuhiro Ohmura announced plans to undercut ASML on price for ArF immersion (DUV) tools, targeting large US and Asian chipmakers. This follows a period of weak shipments for Nikon (11 ArF systems in FY2024, none in first three quarters of FY2025), while ASML dominates over 80% of the lithography market and holds a monopoly on EUV systems. Ohmura argues that chipmakers want dual suppliers to control costs. ASML's ArF immersion machines average ~$82.5 million per unit, leaving room for a cheaper rival. Nikon plans to leverage in-house parts manufacturing for cost advantages. The immediate threat is limited to DUV, which still accounts for the majority of patterning steps even at advanced nodes. However, if Nikon successfully wins orders from major customers like Intel (which once accounted for 80% of Nikon's ArF orders) or TSMC, ASML could face pricing pressure and margin compression in a key product segment. Source: [Tom's Hardware](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/nikon-plans-to-undercut-asml-on-price-to-win-back-chipmaking-lithography-customers).

Anthropic completed a $65 billion funding round, pushing its valuation to $965 billion and overtaking OpenAI, according to [DataCenterDynamics](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/anthropic-raises-65bn-overtakes-openai-to-965bn-valuation/). The raise signals strong investor confidence in Anthropic's growth trajectory, with prediction markets on [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/level2/anthropic-reaches-1t-valuation-befo) showing a 28.11% chance of reaching a $1T valuation before OpenAI. However, a [CNBC report](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/-tokens-or-humans-the-new-corporate-trade-off.html) highlights that enterprise AI budgets are being exhausted quickly, with CFOs grappling with unsustainable costs—a potential headwind for Anthropic's premium pricing model. Additionally, Anthropic recently halved its list of unauthorized platforms after pushback, per [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-30/anthropic-cuts-unauthorized-platform-list-by-half-after-pushback), indicating ongoing regulatory tightrope walking. Despite cost concerns, the massive funding round underscores Anthropic's market position and ability to attract capital in a frothy AI investment environment.

A prediction market on Manifold (source: [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-nvidia-announce-an-n1n1x-windo)) shows an 80.15% probability that Nvidia will announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote. If confirmed, this would be a significant design win for Arm's architecture, as Nvidia is a major GPU vendor entering the Arm PC ecosystem. This could boost Arm's licensing revenue and validate its position in the PC CPU market against x86 incumbents. However, the source is a single prediction market with no official confirmation, warranting low confidence. Spillover effects could impact Qualcomm (existing Arm PC chip vendor) and Microsoft (Windows-on-Arm ecosystem partner). The short window (1 day to Computex) suggests an imminent catalyst.