A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones...

A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source: Manifold). This represents a strong market belief in Apple's entry into on-device AI silicon for mobile, which could signal a shift in Apple's strategy toward custom AI accelerators. If realized, Apple's AI chip would likely be manufactured by TSMC (TSM) on advanced nodes, creating additional demand for leading-edge foundry capacity. It may also reduce Apple's reliance on third-party AI chips from Qualcomm (QCOM) or others for future iPhones, potentially impacting their mobile AI chip revenues. However, this is crowd-sourced probability data, not an official announcement from Apple, and the timeline within 2026 remains speculative. The signal is low confidence due to the single prediction market source, but the high probability suggests significant market anticipation that aligns with broader trends of hyperscalers and mobile OEMs developing custom silicon for AI inference. Monitoring for official confirmations at WWDC or subsequent events is recommended.