Manifold prediction markets show a 77% consensus that Apple will release a dedicated AI chip for iPhones in 2026...

Manifold prediction markets show a 77% consensus that Apple will release a dedicated AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source: Manifold). Additionally, an 80% consensus indicates Apple is likely to announce a major AI model partnership at WWDC 2026 (source: Manifold). These probabilities suggest strong market belief in Apple's deepening commitment to on-device AI and external AI partnerships. While prediction markets are speculative and not official announcements, the convergence of high probabilities on related outcomes points to a material shift in Apple's AI strategy. If realized, an Apple AI chip would reduce reliance on third-party silicon for inference, potentially impacting suppliers like TSMC (manufacturing) and competitors like NVDA (edge AI). A partnership with OpenAI or Google would further integrate advanced AI into Apple's ecosystem, driving demand for Apple hardware. The signal is low confidence due to the speculative nature of prediction markets and lack of direct corporate confirmation, but the magnitude of consensus warrants attention.