A prediction market on Manifold Markets estimates a 39.46% probability that an Amazon Web Services (AMZN) data center...

A prediction market on Manifold Markets estimates a 39.46% probability that an Amazon Web Services (AMZN) data center will be nationalized by a foreign government before 2030 (source). While speculative, this elevated probability signals growing perceived political risk to hyperscaler data center assets abroad. Nationalization would directly impair Amazon's cloud infrastructure, disrupting AI and compute services for customers, and could force costly relocation or write-downs. The signal is low confidence due to reliance on a single prediction market, but the direction is clearly negative for AMZN. Spillover risk extends to other hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOGL, ORCL) with similar international data center footprints.