Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will maintain its monopoly...

Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will maintain its monopoly in EUV lithography. As of 2026-05-30, traders assign an 81.77% probability that ASML remains the sole producer of EUV machines through end of 2026 (source), 69.43% through end of 2027 (source), and 96.17% that it is a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by end of 2024 (source). Additionally, there is an 83.77% belief that ASML's revenue will increase every year for the next five years (source). The probability of China developing a domestic EUV alternative by 2030 is only 56.45% (source), and evidence of ASML selling EUV machines to China in 2023 is considered very unlikely (6.28%, source). While prediction market data is not definitive evidence, these aggregated beliefs suggest durable competitive advantage and revenue growth for ASML, positively impacting downstream semiconductor manufacturers reliant on EUV technology. Low confidence is assigned due to reliance on a single prediction market platform.