Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of 2026-05-25 indicates strong consensus that ASML will remain the sole...

Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of 2026-05-25 indicates strong consensus that ASML will remain the sole producer of EUV lithography machines through at least 2026 (81.77% probability) and 2027 (69.43%). Additionally, there is 96.17% confidence ASML was a monopoly in EUV through end of 2024. The probability of ASML selling EUV machines to China in 2023 is very low (6.28%). These figures suggest sustained competitive advantage and pricing power for ASML, with limited threat from Chinese competition or rival EUV development. For AI-infra and semiconductor supply chains, this implies continued reliance on ASML for cutting-edge chip manufacturing, benefiting foundries like TSMC and Intel, and maintaining barriers to entry for competitors. Sources: Manifold (2026), Manifold (2027), Manifold (2024), Manifold (China sales).