Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets show strong consensus that ASML will maintain its monopoly in...

Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets show strong consensus that ASML will maintain its monopoly in EUV lithography through at least 2026-2027, with 81.77% and 69.43% probabilities for remaining the only EUV producer through end of 2026 and 2027 respectively source 1, source 3. The market also assigns 96.17% probability that ASML was a monopoly in EUV by end of 2024 source 6. Revenue growth is also seen as likely, with 83.77% expecting year-over-year increases for the next five years source 2. Geopolitical risks appear limited: only 6.28% believe ASML sold EUV machines to China in 2023 source 7, and a low 11.23% expect CEO Peter Wennink to face serious charges before 2030 source 4. The main long-term threat is China developing its own EUV machine, with 56.45% probability by 2030 source 5. While purely speculative, these prediction market odds reinforce a stable competitive position for ASML in the near to medium term, supporting continued dominance in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.