On June 12, 2026, the prediction market Manifold showed a 96.54% probability that Tesla will announce a formal...

On June 12, 2026, the prediction market Manifold showed a 96.54% probability that Tesla will announce a formal partnership with Intel for AI chip fabrication by June 30, 2026 (source). This near-certain event would mark a major win for Intel's foundry business, bringing a high-profile customer in the AI space. The timeline suggests an imminent announcement within 18 days, boosting Intel's credibility in advanced manufacturing. Other Intel-related predictions are less favorable: only 27% chance of manufacturing Nvidia chips by end of 2026 (source), 48.73% for a TSMC-Intel joint venture (source), and 14.03% for catching up with TSMC in lithography by 2028 (source). The Tesla partnership, if realized, would be a concrete positive catalyst for Intel's foundry ambitions, potentially impacting competitors AMD, Nvidia, and TSMC.