Three prediction market questions on Manifold Markets suggest low-probability but consequential future moves for...

Three prediction market questions on Manifold Markets suggest low-probability but consequential future moves for Microsoft (MSFT) in AI infrastructure and partnership strategy. As of the source dates, the market gives only 36.36% chance that MSFT will power a data center with a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) by 2030 (source), indicating limited near-term expectation of nuclear power for data centers. The probability of MSFT acquiring or merging with OpenAI by end of 2027 stands at just 14.13% (source), suggesting the market views a full deal as unlikely despite deep existing ties. Finally, the chance that MSFT or OpenAI confirmed plans in 2024 to build the rumored $100 billion 'Stargate' supercomputer is only 4.57% (source), implying widespread skepticism that such a massive capex project will be officially announced soon. While these are weak signals from a prediction market, they collectively highlight key strategic uncertainties—energy sourcing, partnership structure, and compute scale—that would significantly affect MSFT's capex trajectory and competitive position in AI. If any of these events materialize, spillover effects would be felt by GPU suppliers like NVDA and AMD, as well as infrastructure providers. For now, the signals are too weak to change the near-term outlook.