As of 2026-08-04, Manifold Markets prediction markets present a two-sided outlook for NVDA.
As of 2026-08-04, Manifold Markets prediction markets present a two-sided outlook for NVDA.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
NVDA has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
As of 2026-08-04, Manifold Markets prediction markets present a two-sided outlook for NVDA. Bullish sentiment is exceptionally strong: a 96.96% probability that NVDA shares hit a new all-time high in 2026 (source 9) and a 55.82% probability of the highest market cap at end of 2026 (source 13). However, a cluster of China/competition markets points to a growing long-term threat. The market gives 74.92% probability that China's AI chip sector makes significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia (source 10), and 72.90% that a serious competitor emerges before EOY 2027 (source 18). On export controls, the probability of NVDA resuming sales of top GPUs to China by April 2027 is only 11.08% (source 8), and only 19% for B30A sales being allowed by 2027 (source 14). Meanwhile, China-domestic chip performance catching H100 is seen as unlikely in the near term (18.07% for ≥80% H100 perf by end-2026, source 15), but 24.55% for comparable H100 performance by 2026 (source 23). Together, these data suggest the market expects persistent export restrictions and a gradual competitive build-out in China that could pressure NVDA's future market share, even as near-term stock performance is highly anticipated.
What the sources said
- Source 10: "China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia" — YES=74.92%
- Source 18: "Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?" — YES=72.90%
- Source 8: "Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?" — YES=11.08%
- Source 9: "Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?" — YES=96.96%
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%”
“Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%”
“Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%”
“Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%”
“Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%”
“Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.