Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of June 13, 2026, indicates a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and...

Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of June 13, 2026, indicates a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom artificial intelligence chip by 2030. This is among the highest probabilities assigned to any OpenAI-related prediction on the platform, suggesting strong conviction among participants. Additionally, a separate prediction (25.66% yes) asks whether OpenAI will publicly share software to run AI on chips from different providers, hinting at a broader strategy to decouple from single hardware vendors. If realized, a custom chip would represent a profound shift in AI infrastructure dynamics: OpenAI would join the ranks of hyperscalers like Google and Amazon that have developed their own silicon. This would likely reduce OpenAI's dependence on NVIDIA's GPUs, potentially altering GPU demand forecasts and competitive positioning for AMD and Intel. The manufacturing of such a chip would likely involve a foundry partner such as TSMC, affecting their capacity allocation. While these are probabilistic predictions rather than official announcements, the high confidence market signals are valuable leading indicators for semiconductor supply chain planning. Sources: https://manifold.markets/NicholasCharette73b6/will-openai-design-and-manufacture and https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-openai-publicly-share-software