Several Manifold prediction market questions as of June 12, 2026 show extremely low probabilities for SMIC overtaking...
Several Manifold prediction market questions as of June 12, 2026 show extremely low probabilities for SMIC overtaking TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Several Manifold prediction market questions as of June 12, 2026 show extremely low probabilities for SMIC overtaking TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing. The probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by the end of 2024 is only 4.61% (source), by 2028 is 15.39% (source), and by 2033 is 18.80% (source). Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm chip generation before 2026 is only 11.00% (source). These low odds reflect a consensus that SMIC lags significantly behind TSMC in process technology. A notable talent risk is highlighted by a 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years (source), which would further challenge SMIC's R&D capabilities. While these are speculative market odds, they signal persistent weakness in SMIC's competitive position relative to TSMC.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.