Prediction market data from Manifold Markets suggests continued pessimism around SMIC's ability to close the gap with...

Prediction market data from Manifold Markets suggests continued pessimism around SMIC's ability to close the gap with TSMC. As of 2026-05-31, the market assigns only an 18.8% probability that SMIC will manufacture semiconductors outcompeting TSMC by end of 2033, with even lower probabilities for nearer-term milestones (4.6% by 2024, 15.4% by 2028). Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 stands at just 11%, and there is a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song will leave SMIC for another semiconductor company within five years. These aggregated signals indicate eroding competitive positioning and potential talent flight, which could reduce SMIC's long-term relevance in advanced nodes. Spillover to TSMC is positive as SMIC's weakness reinforces TSMC's dominance. Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.