Multiple Manifold Markets predictions indicate a low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced...
Multiple Manifold Markets predictions indicate a low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. As of June 2026, the consensus probability that SMIC manages to manufacture chips outcompeting TSMC by 2028 is only 15.39% (source). The probability for 2024 is even lower at 4.61% (source). Additionally, the chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 is 11% (source), and there is a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years (source). These aggregate market beliefs suggest SMIC faces significant technological and talent retention challenges, reinforcing a negative outlook for its competitive position relative to TSMC.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold Markets predictions indicate a low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. As of June 2026, the consensus probability that SMIC manages to manufacture chips outcompeting TSMC by 2028 is only 15.39% (source). The probability for 2024 is even lower at 4.61% (source). Additionally, the chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 is 11% (source), and there is a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years (source). These aggregate market beliefs suggest SMIC faces significant technological and talent retention challenges, reinforcing a negative outlook for its competitive position relative to TSMC.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.