Multiple prediction market contracts on Manifold Markets indicate very low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete...

Multiple prediction market contracts on Manifold Markets indicate very low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC or achieve advanced node manufacturing in the near to medium term. As of June 2, 2026, the market for SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2024 stood at just 4.61% (source 1). The same metric for 2028 and 2033 was 15.39% and 18.80% respectively (source 3, source 2). The probability of SMIC achieving 3nm chip generation before 2026 was only 11% (source 4). Additionally, there is a 55.85% chance that key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years, further threatening talent retention (source 5). These collective signals point to persistent skepticism about SMIC's technological competitiveness relative to TSMC, suggesting limited near-term progress in node advancement or market share gains. While prediction markets are not definitive, the consistency across timeframes reinforces the bear case for SMIC's semiconductor capabilities.