signal type · other
prediction market signal
Every published prediction market signal signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh prediction market signal calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
3
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a prediction market signal signal?
A prediction market signal signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged prediction_market_signal by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published prediction market signal signal
2026-06-17 · MSFT · neutral · low
Three prediction market questions on Manifold Markets suggest low-probability but consequential future moves for...
2026-06-05 · CERE · down · low
On 2026-06-05, a Manifold Markets prediction question 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?' showed a...
2026-05-26 · INTC · up · low
As of May 26, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold show a 96.54% probability that Tesla will announce a formal...