signal type · other
supply chain disruption
Every published supply chain disruption signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh supply chain disruption calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
32
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a supply chain disruption signal?
A supply chain disruption signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged supply_chain_disruption by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published supply chain disruption signal
2026-07-14 · ASML · neutral · low
A Manifold prediction market as of July 14, 2026 indicates a 43.06% probability that the United States will cut ASML...
2026-07-14 · AAPL · up · medium
The global smartphone market hit its lowest second-quarter shipment level since 2013, declining 11% year-over-year,...
2026-07-12 · TSM · down · medium
On July 12, 2026, China announced a temporary ban on helium exports, critical for semiconductor manufacturing (source:...
2026-07-10 · TSM · down · low
Typhoon Bavi is approaching Taiwan, with land and sea warnings issued across the island, including northeastern areas...
2026-07-03 · BABA · down · low
Tom's Hardware reported that Taiwanese authorities are investigating AI GPU smuggling by Supermicro employees, with...
2026-06-28 · SCALEAI · down · low
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 52.72% probability that US export restrictions will lead to...
2026-06-28 · AAPL · down · medium
Apple is lobbying the U.S. government for permission to purchase DRAM from CXMT, a Chinese memory manufacturer...
2026-06-28 · NVDA · up · low
LG Chem is considering expanding production of copper-clad laminate (CCL), a key substrate material used in AI chip...
2026-06-28 · AAPL · down · medium
Apple faces an unprecedented memory cost surge as AI-driven demand for HBM and DRAM reallocates supply away from...
2026-06-28 · AAPL · down · medium
A memory supply crunch, driven by AI data center demand for HBM, has forced Apple to raise prices on iPads, MacBooks,...
2026-06-28 · AAPL · down · medium
Apple is grappling with a severe memory chip shortage driven by AI demand, leading to historic price hikes on iPads and...
2026-06-27 · TSM · neutral · low
The New York Times published an article on June 26, 2026, highlighting that advanced chip packaging is now more reliant...
2026-06-27 · AAPL · down · medium
Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies...
2026-06-27 · SCALEAI · down · low
A prediction market on Manifold (source 1) indicates a 52.72% consensus that US export restrictions will lead to...
2026-06-25 · AMZN · down · medium
A growing shortage of skilled labor is emerging as a secondary bottleneck for AI data center construction, potentially...
2026-06-24 · SCALEAI · down · low
A prediction market on Manifold ( indicates a 52.72% probability that US export restrictions will lead to reported...
2026-06-24 · AMD · up · low
AMD is facing a severe processor shortage, compelling the company to revive older Renoir (Zen 2) and Picasso (Zen+)...
2026-06-23 · AAPL · down · medium
On June 22, 2026, Tata Electronics, a key supplier to Apple and Tesla, confirmed a data breach that exposed over 630GB...
2026-06-23 · SCALEAI · down · low
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 52.72% probability that US export restrictions lead to reported...
2026-06-18 · SCALEAI · down · low
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 52.72% probability that US export restrictions will lead to...
2026-06-18 · ASML · up · medium
On June 17, 2026, Bloomberg reported that ASML CEO warned of possible supply constraints on Elon Musk's Terafab project...
2026-06-17 · GOOGL · down · low
According to a Digitimes report (source), TSMC's ongoing capacity crunch is pushing Google, along with Tesla and BYD,...
2026-06-16 · GOOGL · up · medium
According to a Digitimes report (source), Google is spearheading a push among cloud service providers to diversify...
2026-06-15 · SMIC · down · low
According to EMSNow, the price of tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆), a key gas used in semiconductor etching and chemical...
2026-06-15 · GOOGL · neutral · low
Google's TPU diversification strategy is causing challenges for ASIC partner MediaTek, according to a Digitimes report...
2026-06-15 · SCALEAI · down · low
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 52.72% consensus that US export restrictions will lead to reported...
2026-06-13 · SAMSUNG · down · low
A Reddit post citing wccftech reports that China has cut off tungsten exports, leaving TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung...
2026-06-04 · AMD · down · medium
AMD's upcoming Gorgon Halo APU, which supports up to 192GB of unified memory, faces headwinds from a sharp rise in DRAM...
2026-06-04 · NVDA · down · medium
A CNBC investigation reveals that nearly all AI circuit boards for Nvidia and others are made in China, creating a...
2026-06-03 · INTC · down · medium
Intel is facing supply constraints on its advanced 18A process node, affecting both client and data center product...
2026-06-02 · GITHUB · down · medium
A supply-chain attack compromised official Red Hat NPM accounts (@redhat-cloud-services) to push backdoored packages...
2026-05-22 · SAMSUNG · down · low
Samsung has reached a tentative agreement with its union to postpone a planned strike, according to a Digitimes...