label hit-rate ledger

Backtest-derived calibration for the breakout and divergence labels rendered on /convergence. Hit = a published signal landed for that entity within 24h of the label being computed. Generated by scripts/backtest-convergence-labels.py; re-run to refresh.

backtest window: 14d · generated 2026-10-26 15:34 utc

baseline — any converged entity (≥3 sources, 24h window)

0.0%0 / 61 entity-days had a signal in the next 24h

label	n	rate	lift
breakout ≥3 sources fire AND attention surging ≥15% — mainstream catching up	7	0.0%	—
divergence ≥3 sources fire AND attention dropping — pre-news lead-time	23	0.0%	—
unlabeled-converged ≥3 sources fire but no attention trend / flat — the residual	31	0.0%	—

Bar: solid = label hit-rate, vertical tick = baseline. To the right of the tick means the label produces signal above what you'd get from any converged entity at random.

← high signal

label hit-rate ledger

backtest window: 14d · generated 2026-10-26 15:34 utc

baseline — any converged entity (≥3 sources, 24h window)

0.0%0 / 61 entity-days had a signal in the next 24h

label	n	rate	lift
breakout ≥3 sources fire AND attention surging ≥15% — mainstream catching up	7	0.0%	—
divergence ≥3 sources fire AND attention dropping — pre-news lead-time	23	0.0%	—
unlabeled-converged ≥3 sources fire but no attention trend / flat — the residual	31	0.0%	—

Bar: solid = label hit-rate, vertical tick = baseline. To the right of the tick means the label produces signal above what you'd get from any converged entity at random.