markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the 2026 CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform Nvidia / NVDA over the next 6 months?': YES=50.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=31.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=16.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=71.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=38.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=75.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=6.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=9.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=8.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=24.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=7.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%