markets

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=19.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=25.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=80.15%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?': YES=2.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?': YES=71.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets': YES=43.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.90%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?': YES=93.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%