markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-28 · run status: success with data
Polymarket consensus on 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=64.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=35.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=41.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=59.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=6.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=76.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-02Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=49.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-02Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-02Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-02Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-02New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-02New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-01Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-01Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by June 15?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=8.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-01Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Polymarket top market 'Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-01Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5
Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-01Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on June 1?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on June 1?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-01Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=19.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=85.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=72.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers': YES=44.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will David Njoku play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-01Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-01Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5': YES=60.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=64.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-01Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket