markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=13.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=35.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=14.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Donald Trump be the US president when we get AGI?': YES=24.25%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a "Search" feature that replaces ChatGPT's default interface before July 1, 2026?': YES=15.35%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?': YES=16.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?': YES=1.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?': YES=25.17%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026': YES=17.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=82.02%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=68.87%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=18.76%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=8.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s valuation exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027?': YES=33.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=70.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?': YES=98.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?': YES=96.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?': YES=19.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?': YES=2.61%

Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?': YES=8.02%

Manifold consensus on 'AI chip to 1 GW in 100 days before 2032?': YES=60.53%

Manifold consensus on 'China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?': YES=53.68%

Manifold consensus on 'US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026': YES=52.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI demonstrate a working thermo-chip by 2050?': YES=80.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?': YES=25.45%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=71.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026': YES=96.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=35.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=28.21%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=14.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=28.04%