markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=73.44%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5?': YES=83.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=44.70%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by June 30?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alberta join the US?': YES=4.90%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Spurs (-6.5)': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=52.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?': YES=2.90%

Polymarket top market 'Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=18.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?': YES=0.30%